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Odds To Win 2020 AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards

2020 AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards

Although the start of the MLB season has been delayed due to COVID-19, it’s never too early to look at the league’s brightest future stars and the 2020 AL and NL Rookie of the Year class.

Last year, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso launched 53 home runs to win the NL ROY, while Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez didn’t make his debut until early June but finished with the third-best OPS and cracked 27 homers in 87 games on his way to the AL ROY.

Online sportsbook Bovada has listed Chicago White Sox’s Michael Kopech as the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year at +350 followed by Chicago’s Luis Robert at +400, Detroit Tigers’ Casey Mize at +500, Oakland Athletics’ Jesus Luzardo at +650 and Los Angeles Angels’ Jo Adell at +1000 to round out the top five on the oddsboard.

As for the NL Rookie of the Year, Bovada has pegged Los Angeles Dodgers’ Gavin Lux as the favorite at +275 followed by Colorado Rockies’ Brendan Rodgers at +1000, San Diego Padres’ MacKenzie Gore at +1000, Washington Nationals’ Carter Kieboom at +1000 and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Dustin May at +1000 to round out the top five players on the oddsboard.

AL and NL Rookie of the Year Odds

With the start of the season delayed, it’ll be interesting to see if the league decides to do a shortened season and how that will impact players who don’t typically make the Opening Day roster so teams can hold on to the player for six years before free agency. Perhaps that will be eliminated in 2020 and all the deserving rookies will be on their respective clubs for game No. 1 on their schedule.

I have an analysis of the 2020 Rookie of the Year futures below.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the American League Rookie of the Year:

Odds To Win the AL Rookie of the year
Michael Kopech +350
Luis Robert +400
Casey Mize +500
Jesus Luzardo+650
Jo Adell+1000
Brendan McKay+1000
Evan White+1200
Nate Pearson+2000
Wander Franco+2000
Forrest Whitley+2200
Deivi Garcia+2200
Nick Madrigal+3500
Ryan Mountcastle+4000
Clarke Schmidt+4000
A.J. Puk+4000
Brady Singer+5000
Sean Murphy+5500

Odds as of March 16 at Bovada

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the National League Rookie of the Year:

Odds to win the NL Rookie of the year
Gavin Lux+275
Brendan Rodgers+1000
MacKenzie Gore+1000
Carter Kieboom+1000
Dustin May+1000
Dylan Carlson+1100
Jon Duplantier+1200
Mitch Keller+1200
Nico Hoerner+1600
Cristian Pache+1800
Sixto Sanchez+2000
Joey Bart+2000
Nick Lodolo +2000
Ke’Bryan Hayes+2000
Kyle Wright+2200
Jesus Sanchez+4000
Spencer Howard+4000
David Peterson+4500
Drew Rasmussen+4500

Odds as of March 16 at Bovada

Why Is Kopech The AL ROY Favorite?

The two cornerstones of the blockbuster deal that saw Chris Sale get traded from the White Sox to the Red Sox were Yoan Moncada, who became a full-time big leaguer in 2018, and right-handed pitcher Michael Kopech, who made his first four career starts in 2018. The 22-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after his fourth start, which caused him to miss the entire 2019 campaign, but he should be raring to go in 2020.

He is a flamethrower, nailing 100 mph on the gun regularly and hitting 105 mph in a high-A ball game in 2016. What also helps Kopech’s case to win the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year is that his club is full of exciting young talent and the team is expected to take a jump in the division, which usually goes a long way in the voters’ eyes.

Which Player Is Providing Better Value Than Kopech?

I look here at another pitcher who is ready to turn heads on a team that is perhaps a little more ready to make a push into the playoffs and that is Jesus Luzardo of the Oakland Athletics at +650. The 22-year-old looked terrific in his three appearances in spring training, tossing a combined 8.1 innings while striking out 13 batters, walking one, allowing four hits and just one earned run.

The Peru native made six appearances with the big club last year, striking out 16 batters over 12 innings and allowing just two earned runs and three walks. What’s most impressive is Luzardo’s incredible control; in 2018, when he pitched 109.1 innings at three different minor-league levels, he yielded just 30 walks. He has electric stuff on a great team, which is a recipe for success.

Why Is Lux the NL ROY Favorite?

Gavin Lux already has built some credentials despite playing just 23 games with the Dodgers last year. The former first-round draft pick became the youngest player to hit a pinch-hit postseason home run as well as the youngest Dodger to hit a playoff homer. Prior to getting called up to the majors, Lux was playing with Triple-A club Oklahoma City and had a ridiculous .392 batting average, a .478 on-base percentage and a 1.197 OPS in 49 games.

The Wisconsin native bopped 15 homers combined in 2018 in high-A and Double-A ball before upping the ante in 2019 with 28 round-trippers combined in Double-A, Triple-A and MLB. He has great speed on the basepaths, a real threat to steal bags and have extra-base hits. He is surely going to bring some excitement up the middle for the Dodgers and is rightfully the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year.

Which Player Is Providing Better Odds Than Lux?

Another team that will definitely be a World Series contender in 2020 is the St. Louis Cardinals and they have an outfielder in Dylan Carlson who could burst onto the scene this season. The 21-year-old has odds of +1100 to win the NL Rookie of the Year and it’s just a matter of whether he gets enough playing time on this strong squad.

In Double-A and Triple-A last year, Carlson had 26 home runs and 20 stolen bags and hit .292. He appeared in the Double-A Home Run Derby, was in the All-Star Futures Game and was named the Texas League Player of the Year. Playing on an elite club like the Cardinals with his blend of power and speed, the sky is the limit for Carlson. I’m just not sure he will get the body of work needed to win the award.