AL West Odds & Picks: A's Can Pull Off The Upset

The AL West is the most interesting MLB division this season.

The Astros have dominated this division for years, winning seven of the last eight AL West pennants. But, 2025 AL West odds show this year's pennant is very much up for grabs.

The Astros (+180), Rangers (+190), and Mariners (+200) are all neck and neck. Even the long-struggling Angels (+2100) and Athletics (+2500) both made significant additions this winter, too.

AL West Odds

Houston Astros (+180)

The Astros won this division, but the path to success isn't as clear in 2025. Houston lost big bats in Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker — arguably two of their four best hitters. They did replace the offense in two-way 1B Christian Walker and a pull-happy Isaac Paredes (who should flourish with the Crawford Boxes in left), but it's hard to say this team got better.

Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, and Cristian Javier should lead a rotation that can't be as bad or injured as last year. I do still think Houston is the rightful division favorite, but I'm not sure I see much value at +180.

PECOTA projections peg the Astros for 88.1 wins (which I think is fair), while FanGraphs is a bit more cautious at 84. The Astros are still a force, but they feel more vulnerable than they have in a long time.

Texas Rangers (+190)

The 2023 World Series champs took a big of a step back in 2024, finishing under .500. But I think there's some real bounce-back potential deep in the heart of Texas. The Rangers added some more offense to an already potent lineup in Joc Pederson and Jake Burger, but the rotation will be the big question here.

The biggest X-factor? Jacob deGrom. The former Cy winner is coming back from Tommy John surgery where he'll join Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Tyler Mahle as the bulk of Texas' starting staff. If deGrom can stay healthy, the rotation is good enough to allow the lineup to win this division.

PECOTA is buying the bounce-back with a 89.9-win projection for Texas and FanGraphs is close behind at 85 wins.

Jacob is getting ready for deSeason to start 😎 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/YQbOzoPu4o

— MLB (@MLB) February 19, 2025

Seattle Mariners (+200)

Seattle always comes up short, so it was no surprise when they did the exact same thing last year, finishing 85-77 and out of the playoffs.

The rotation has no questions – Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Logan Gilbert might be the best starting group in baseball. The lineup is a problem, though.

Seattle finished 21st in runs scored last year (4.17 per game) and did basically nothing to upgrade the lineup this winter. If the bats still can't provide enough run support, the M’s will be right back to mediocrity in 2025. Both PECOTA (86.3 wins) and FanGraphs (84 wins) expect them to hang around all year.

Los Angeles Angels (+2100)

The Angels were brutal last year, seemingly committing to the rebuild. So I was perplexed by the adds this winter.

LA brought in Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks, Kenley Jansen, Travis d'Arnaud, Yoan Moncada, and Jorge Soler this offseason. All of those adds are interesting and could be great upside bets for a team that wanted to get back to real contention. The Angels just don't have that path, though.

Instead, LA has positioned itself as too good to draft high and too bad to be a contender — the worst place to be. PECOTA is equally skeptical with a 74.0-win projection, while FanGraphs is only slightly more optimistic at 76.

Athletics (+2500)

The A’s are homeless this year, playing home games at a minor league park in Sacramento for 2025. But, when I look at the product on that minor-league field, I'm weirdly optimistic.

The Athletics made some sneaky-good moves this winter, adding Luis Severino, Jose Leclerc, Gio Urshela to a team that already had a solid young core. If Brent Rooker keeps mashing and young guys like Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson really pop alongside Lawrence Butler, I see a path to a good season for this former-Oakland team.

If the A's can overcome playing in a million degrees outside in Sacramento, they could be a fun bet at +2500. FanGraphs sees them as a 76-win team, while PECOTA is a bit lower at 71.7.

In our Sacramento Erahttps://t.co/qPxlJWK68Z pic.twitter.com/waU1IKWWSO

— Athletics (@Athletics) January 17, 2025

AL West Odds Value Picks: Rangers (+190), Athletics (+2500)

I'll give you two value picks for this division, one realistic and one hot take.

Of the top teams in the West, this Rangers line is calling to me. Texas experienced the classic World Series hangover last year, with slumps and pitching injuries ruining their season. This year, I'm betting on the rebound — deGrom is back, Burger and Pederson will elevate an already great offense, and as long as Gray, Mahle, and Eovaldi stay on the mound this is a division contender.

My hot take is the Athletics are going to surprise people this year. They were bottom-five in runs scored and runs allowed last year, but improved across the board. New pitchers Severino and Springs both have top-of-rotation upside while this is an offense filled with breakout candidates — learn the name Lawrence Butler if you don't already know it. I think there's a 2022 Orioles path to success for this A's squad.

Last 10 AL West Champions

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