MLB Expert Picks

MLB Expert Picks For Today: Lock In On Lugo

Let's kick off the week with some MLB expert picks.

I'm back to my boy Seth Lugo tonight as well as a fade of Spencer Arrighetti over the Astros. Arrighetti has just one quality start in his 11 outings this season, so it's a pretty easy Astros fade for me.

Check out all my MLB picks for June 10th:

MLB Expert Picks: June 10th, 2024

You can jump directly to today's picks here:

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Pick 1: Giants (+100) vs Astros

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:11 pm ET

What's the opposite of a quality start? A poor quality start? Because Spencer Arrighetti has gotten pretty good at serving those up. The Astros righty has failed to pitch a quality start in 10 of his 11 MLB starts this year, earning a 5.79 ERA on the season.

Tonight, Arrighetti and the Astros face a Giants team that's been sliding down the NL West standings — but we can finally catch them on an up. San Francisco has won three of their last four games, including taking a series from the reigning World Series champs.

The Giants Counter Arrighetti with southpaw Kyle Harrison, who has five quality starts and a 4.18 ERA on the season. He's not Cy Young, by any means, but he's better than the Astros pitching.

I initially wanted to also take the under on Harrison's strikeouts in this one, as the Astros strikeout fourth-fewest in baseball against lefties like him. But, the Giants hurler's line is set at O/U 3.5 and that's a line he's bested in six-straight starts. So, let's take the over.

 

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Pick 2: Yankees vs Royals UNDER 8.5 Runs (+100)

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:11 pm ET

This line should not be 8.5 runs, I don't care how good the Yankees offense is playing.

Seth Lugo might be the best pitcher in baseball. The Royals righty has a 2.13 ERA on the season and has allowed over two earned runs in just one of his last eight starts. NY's Carlos Rodon is nearly as good, rocking a 3.08 ERA on the season and allowing over two earned runs in just one of his last six outings.

With that kind of pitching, this is a no brainer under for me at a line like 8.5. It's not like these bullpens are going to choke it away, as the Yankees have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in baseball and the Royals sit about average.

As well, the trends also lean slightly under here with the Yankees hitting under at 52.3% this season and KC at 53.1%.

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