The Atlanta Braves will get their first look at the Miami Marlins in over two months as the teams open a mini two-game set in Miami tonight. The Fish are a different team than they were when Atlanta last saw them. Miami was 13 games under .500 at that time and have gone 29-31 since. They would be 30-30 if not for a crushing walk-off defeat on Sunday in Tampa.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Braves' last 10 games against the Marlins with an average combined score of 10.8.
- The Braves are 0-5 SU in their last five games with Sean Newcomb as the starting pitcher.
- The Marlins are 10-3 SU and ATS in their last 13 games when Sportsbook a series.
To see the Braves-Marlins matchup page, click here.
Both Pitchers Have Seen Better Days
Sean Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves in the opener. Two of Newcomb’s eight wins on the season came in back-to-back starts vs Miami in May. He was outstanding in those games, allowing just five hits and one earned run over 12 innings.
Lately, though, things haven’t been as rosy for the left-hander from Brockton, Massachusetts. The Braves are 0-5 SU in Newcomb’s last five starts. In addition, Newcomb has been tagged with the loss in each of his last three starts, surrendering 13 earned runs on 12 hits over 12 innings. He’s issued 12 walks and struck out just seven over those three starts, all in July, for a July ERA of 9.75 and a July WHIP of 2.00.
Jose Urena (2-9, 4.39 ERA) was the Sportsbook day starter for Miami but never got his first win until his 13th start of the season on June 5. Urena has started three games in July picking up three no-decisions. His July OBA is .259 and his July WHIP is 1.43.
The Dominican born right-hander was the losing pitcher in back-to-back starts vs Atlanta in May. He went six innings in both starts, allowing a combined seven earned runs on nine hits.
It’s All OVER
Eight of the last 10 meetings between Atlanta and Miami, including five of the seven games this season, has hit the OVER with an average combined score of 10.8. The total for tonight’s game opened at 8.
Eight of Sean Newcomb’s last 11 starts have hit the over with an average combined score of 10.09 and the average combined score in Jose Urena’s last 10 starts is 9.7.
In July, the Braves pitching staff has an ERA of 4.95. The Marlins staff is marginally better at 4.56 but have issued a National League-leading 74 free passes in 17 games (4.35 per game).
OddsShark Super Computer Taking the Underdog
Our OddsShark Super Computer is picking the underdog Marlins on the moneyline and ATS in this game. Miami has been on a roll of late, winning four of five and seven of ten games. Their four-game winning streak was snapped by a walk-off home run on Sunday in a game that they played well enough to win.
With Newcomb’s recent struggles and Atlanta scoring an average of 3.93 runs per game in July (down almost a full run per game from their season average), Miami could be a good bet from the underdog position, especially since they are 10-3 SU in their last 13 series-Sportsbook games.
