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Division Leaders Clash in Minnesota

Dansby Swanson #2 of the Atlanta Braves forces out Eddie Rosario #20 of the Minnesota Twins at second base during the seventh inning at Turner Field on August 17, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia.

A pivotal interleague series opens tonight in Minneapolis as the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves visit the American League Central-leading Twins. Rookie sensation Mike Soroka squares off with Jake Odorizzi in a matchup of all-star starters.

The Braves opened as a slight -115 favorite while the Twins are paying -105. The total opened at 10.

Braves vs Twins Game Center

Standout Stats

  • The Braves won nine of Mike Soroka’s 10 starts in June and July. He has a 1.29 WHIP and 3.41 ERA over that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi is 6-1 with a 3.81 ERA at home this season. However, he gave up nine earned runs in four innings vs the Yankees in his last home start.
  • The forecast for opening pitch is 77 degrees with a slight breeze blowing in from center.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Minnesota’s last seven home games with an average combined score of 15.28. That’s not a typo.
  • Odorizzi has a 5.87 F5 ERA and a 1.47 F5 WHIP since June 1. However, the Twins are MLB’s most profitable F5 team.
  • At 34-22, the Braves are the National League’s best road team and just one game shy of being the best road team in the majors (MIN 35-21, TB 35-22).
  • The Twins have won eight of their last 10 games and three in a row. However, they’re just 1-3 at home against NL opponents and 5-7 overall.
  • Tonight marks the first time that any Minnesota hitters will see Mike Soroka. Meanwhile, the Braves roster has a 1.184 OPS in 89 career at-bats vs Jake Odorizzi.

My Best Bet for Braves vs Twins

F5 UNDER 5.5 (-120)

First five inning UNDER bets are always a sweat, but I think this is the best place to capitalize in this game. Two of this season’s top pitchers are on the mound, Soroka has the advantage of the unknown (albeit, with video scouting, it’s a little less of an unknown) and the Braves are just middle of the road when it comes to F5 scoring.

Another reason that I’m making this play is that I feel like the moneyline is really a coin flip here. The Braves are a better all-around team and one of the best road teams but the Twins are on a hot run and are a very good team at home.

So, with that, I’ll be sweating out the first five UNDER.