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Pete Alonso and the Mets are small home favorites Thursday in Braves vs Mets odds.

The New York Mets (66-38) and Atlanta Braves (63-42) collide at Citi Field on Thursday in the opener of a key five-game series. The Mets are 8-1 in their last nine outings while the Braves are 4-1 in their last five games. Find out which of these NL East powerhouses has the edge in our Braves vs Mets prediction.

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Braves vs Mets Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds

The Braves opened as the slight favorite on the road at -120 on the moneyline with the Mets at -105, but early support for the hosts flipped the script, with the Mets now favored at -120 and the Braves coming back at +100. The total was set at 8.5 runs with the OVER going 4-1 in the last five meetings between the clubs at Citi Field. New York is 4-2 in its last six games against Atlanta, though it’s hard to see a clear favorite in our Braves vs Mets prediction.

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Starting Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (11-4) looks to extend his unbeaten run to six games when he takes the mound for the Mets on Thursday night. The right-hander pitched 7.2 scoreless innings against the Miami Marlins last time out on July 30, holding them to just four hits in the win. Carrasco owns a 3.79 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through 111.2 innings.

The Braves are set to send out Kyle Wright (13-4) with the right-hander seeking his fifth straight victory. Wright last pitched on July 29 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing five hits and two earned runs over 6.2 innings of work. The Braves starter has a 2.93 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 122.2 innings this season.

Braves Split Two-Game Set With Phillies

After routing the Philadelphia Phillies 13-1 in the series opener on Tuesday, the Braves fell 3-1 on Wednesday to settle for a split in the two-game set. Orlando Arcia accounted for the lone run of the game for Atlanta with a solo shot in the fifth to put the Braves up 1-0, but Philadelphia tied it on a reviewed play in the eighth before Nick Castellanos put the Phillies up with a two-run homer later that inning.

The loss snapped a four-game win streak for Atlanta, but the Braves have been playing solid baseball for a while now. Since going on a 14-game win streak to start the month of June, the Braves have gone 40-15, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers (66-38) and Mets for the best record in the National League.

Alonso, Vogelbach Go Long To Lead Mets To Victory

The Mets picked up a series win over the Washington Nationals thanks to a 9-5 win on Wednesday. Pete Alonso got the party started with a two-run blast in the third while Daniel Vogelbach added to the lead with a grand slam in the fifth. New York got out to a 9-0 lead before Washington scored five in the bottom of the ninth to make it interesting, but it was too little, too late for the Nationals.

With the Braves nipping at their heels for top spot in the NL East, the Mets have been forced to keep up their intensity through the second half and they’ve done just that. Prior to Tuesday’s loss to Washington, New York was on a seven-game win streak, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.9-3.3 over their last nine ballgames.

Braves vs Mets Pick & Insights

Braves: Keys To Victory

Wright has been excellent over the last month, surrendering just 10 earned runs through his last six starts – a total of 37.2 innings pitched. If the right-hander stays consistent, he should be able to contain a surging Mets offense and give the Braves a chance to win.

Mets: Keys To Victory

New York’s top two hitters, Alonso and Francisco Lindor, have been swinging hot bats: Alonso has four homers and 10 RBIs over his last nine games while Lindor has three home runs and eight RBIs through his last seven appearances. If that duo can keep producing, the Mets may just come out on top.

MLB Computer Pick: Braves ML (+100)

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Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 games.
  • The OVER is 6-3 in New York’s last 9 games.
  • New York is 6-1 in its last 7 games vs NL East.