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Bautista MLB Home Run Prop Odds

Think Jose Bautista is going to crack 50-plus long balls again this season and lead the majors in home runs? The oddsmakers definitely don't.

Bautista, who just signed a contract extension in Toronto, is +1500 longshot to repeat as the home run leader, and his over/under total for home runs this season is nowhere near last year's total of 54.

After crunching the numbers the Sportsbook.ag oddsmakers came up with an over/under home run props for Bautista of 27.5. That's quite a drop, especially when you consider that Bautista hit 24 homers before the All-Star Break last season.

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On the most home runs in the 2011 season prop five players are listed before Bautista. Topping the list is Albert Pujols at +500. Along with Bautista, Pujols was the only other player to hit more than 40 homers last season with 42. That was down from 2009, when he clubbed 47 homers, and believe it or not Pujols has never hit the 50-homer plateau.

That may be why his over/under home run total seems so low at 38.5. With a big fat contract awaiting him at the end of the year could he finally hit the 50 mark this season?


The other sluggers atop the odds list are who you would expect: Prince Fielder (+800), Miguel Cabrera (+800), Ryan Howard (+800), and Adam Dunn (+1200). However, if I'm a betting man I'm not touching any of them.

Fielder hit only 32 bombs last year, and the 50 he hit a few years ago may end up being his career high. Cabrera could be a beast but he's not worth the risk due to his off-field issues. Howard put up only 31 homers last season and seems to be stuck in the same place as Fielder.

Dunn is heading to the American League, which could hinder his numbers. [ Latest Home Run Future Odds at Sportsbook.ag ]

The best-looking darkhorse right now on the home run list is Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzo may have only hit 31 home runs last season, but that was while playing home games in cavernous PETCO Park in San Diego. This year the left-handed slugger moves to Fenway, where the short porch in right could mean a new career high in bombs, topping the 40 he smacked two seasons ago.