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Best OVER/UNDER Pitchers in Baseball

MLB OVER/UNDER’s can be hard to predict but it can pay to consider the starting pitcher and how they’ve done in O/U’s to date. Here is a compilation of the five pitchers who have games they start most frequently go OVER and the five who are at the top of the list for having games they start go UNDER.

Best Over Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg has been one of the best pitchers in the league this year and weirdly enough, is leading the league in games that have gone OVER their total. Obviously, the Nationals’ hurler is only responsible for half of the total equation and has received an average of 6.71 runs of support from the Washington offense – ridiculous.

Jeff Locke is also near the top of the over list. He, however, is not one of the best pitchers in the league. Locke is near the top of the list for worst ERA in the MLB and is a solid candidate for the OVER every time he steps on the mound.

One way of checking whether an OVER is a reasonable bet is to add a pitcher's ERA to his team’s runs per game average and see if the sum of those numbers breaches a game’s set total.

Last season for example, Jays’ pitcher Drew Hutchison was terrible with a 5.57 ERA. He did however, have a stellar 13-5 win/loss record. The Blue Jays had one of the best offenses in baseball last year and provided Hutchison with an average of 6.7 runs. Combine his ERA and his run support and BANG, you have a three-headed OVER monster. 

Top Five OVER Pitchers of 2016 MLB Season  
PlayerOVERsERATeam's Runs / game
Stephen Strasburg122.904.56
Jeff Locke115.444.55
Ricky Nolasco104.914.03
Michael Wacha104.565.24
Jake Arrieta101.735.35

Best Under Pitchers

Jose Quintana has cashed 13 UNDER’s in his 14 starts this year for a White Sox team that has just not been scoring. They are currently 26th in the league in runs per game and have been especially impotent in Quintana starts. The south side hurler has only had one of the games he’s started in hit the OVER.

The Jays’ Marco Estrada just set an MLB record for being the first pitcher to go 11 straight starts of six innings or more while allowing five or less hits – he has five wins. The veteran righty has received a mere 3.57 runs of support through 14 starts.  

Clayton Kershaw unsurprisingly made this list. He has been basically unhittable this season and the Dodgers’ offense has been dismal. Games Kershaw pitches in usually have small totals, but when the ace throws nine scoreless innings, the Dodgers’ offense is responsible for making up the entirety of the game’s total – not too likely.

Top Five Under Pitchers of 2016 MLB Season  
PlayerUNDERsERATeam's Runs / game
Jose Quintana132.634.01
Tyler Chatwood113.155.06
Marco Estrada112.704.64
Jerad Eickhoff113.493.21
Clayton Kershaw111.574.18

Check out this link for a complete list of pitchers' run support numbers. 

*This article was written and published June 22, 2016