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Astros Haven’t Been A Home Underdog In Over a Year

It’s not very often you find the Houston Astros as an underdog during the regular season, especially at home. The Astros have been an underdog three times previously this season and tonight marks the first time they won’t be favored at home since May 2018. They face the Boston Red Sox, who have ace Chris Sale on the mound, and counter with another lefty in Wade Miley.

The Red Sox opened as -135 favorites with a total of 8.5.

Red Sox vs Astros Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Chris Sale is on the mound for the Red Sox and while he strikes out batters with the best of them, he’s still prone to allowing balls to leave the park. In 10 starts, he’s already served up nine home runs; last season, he only surrendered 11 in 27 starts. He owns a 4.18 ERA in five road starts and in his lone start vs Houston last season, he gave up four earned runs off six hits.
  • Wade Miley is getting the start for the Astros and he has a streak that most pitchers don’t brag about: he has allowed a home run in each one of his last seven starts. That being said, he has been solid in home starts with a 2.31 ERA in four games at Minute Maid Park. He faced the Red Sox in his last appearance and only gave up two earned runs in the 4-3 loss.
  • This is the fourth game in which the Astros have been an underdog all season and they lost the previous three contests. This is also the first time they’ve been an underdog at home since May 2, 2018 vs the Yankees, a game they also lost. That was the only time last season they weren’t favored at home.
  • The Red Sox have a decent history of going into Minute Maid Park and dominating. They won all three of their games in Houston during last year’s ALCS and have won five straight at that park dating back to June 2018.
  • The Astros have the best record in MLB at 33-18 SU in 51 games and the best home record at 18-6 SU in 24 games. They have the best run differential at +90 and beat the Red Sox twice in three games when playing at Fenway Park last week.
  • It’s a lefty battle for the batting orders with southpaws on the mound for both teams. The Astros seem to have the edge in that category as they’re averaging .288 vs lefties this season along with a .908 OPS. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are only averaging .244 and .755 OPS.
  • A lot of UNDER trends coming into this matchup with it hitting in seven of the Astros’ last eight games (average combined score: 6.6) and in four of their last five games vs Boston. The UNDER has also hit in the Red Sox’ last four road games with Chris Sale on the mound.

My Best Bet for Red Sox vs Astros

Astros +1.5

There’s just too much value for the Astros at this price (-135) to not take them as a home underdog on the runline. George Springer is expected to be back in the lineup and while I fully expect Chris Sale to get 9-11 strikeouts, he’s still prone to being hit hard as evidenced by allowing nine homers through 10 starts.

The Astros didn’t just stumble into the best home record. They are a really good team facing a starter whom they’re very familiar with. It’s worth noting that I also like OVER 8.5 strikeouts for Sale at +120.