The Boston Red Sox have won five straight games but are a +126 underdog tonight with the host Minnesota Twins coming back at -136. The Twins are 11-3 behind Jose Berrios this year, while the Red Sox’s Rick Porcello has an elevated 6.37 road ERA. Tonight’s total opened at 10 runs.
Standout Stats
- Boston is 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS over its last 15 matches and is riding a five-game winning streak. The Red Sox have a 22-17 road record this season.
- Minnesota is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10. The Twins are 23-11 at Target Field in 2019.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of Minnesota’s last 11 contests with an average combined score of 11.45. Meanwhile, Boston has gone OVER in six of its last 12 matches with an average combined score of 10.08.
- The Twins are 11-3 behind Jose Berrios this year and he is 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He has 11 quality starts this season as well.
- He has the lowest BB/9 rate of his career and the lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2016, while his HR/9 rate is his highest since that 2016 campaign.
- Opponents are hitting .236 against Berrios and he has a career-low 1.10 WHIP. Of the contact against, 22.8 percent is soft-hit and 35 percent is hard-hit. The Red Sox rank 10th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
- Berrios has a 2.53 ERA and a .264 opponent batting average through his seven home starts this year. He has lower K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his road outings. Additionally, he has a lower soft-hit and a higher hard-hit percentage at home.
- The Red Sox are 8-6 through Rick Porcello’s 14 outings this season and he is 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has seven quality starts.
- He has his lowest K/9 rate since 2014 and the highest BB/9 rate of his career. His 1.34 HR/9 rate is right around his career average.
- Opponents are hitting .260 against Porcello and of the batted balls, he has a career-high 22.7 soft-hit percentage while 32.3 percent of the contact is hard-hit. Minnesota leads the majors in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
- Porcello has a 6.37 ERA and a .315 opponent batting average through his six road appearances this year. He has higher K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his home outings. Additionally, he has a much lower soft-hit percentage and a much higher hard-hit percentage.
- Boston is 30-21 against right-handed starters this season and it is first in the majors in batting average and third in runs scored. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox rank third in batting average and fourth in runs scored vs RHP.
- Minnesota is 38-17 against right-handed starters in 2019, ranking second in batting average and in runs scored. More recently, the Twins sit sixth in batting average and seventh in runs scored vs RHP over the last 30 days.
My Best Bet for Boston vs Minnesota
Minnesota moneyline
Porcello has been less than impressive in his road starts this season with opponents hitting .315 against him and he has an elevated 6.37 ERA. Conversely, Berrios has been quite good at home with a solid 2.53 ERA and lower BB/9 and HR/9 rates. Lastly, the Twins are 11-3 behind Berrios and they have a strong 23-11 home record this year.
The total has gone OVER in eight of Minnesota’s last 11 games.home Rick Porcello (BOS) has a 6.37 road ERA this season.away Minnesota is 11-3 behind Jose Berrios this season.home
