The Minnesota Twins look to end their series with the Boston Red Sox on a high note after a marathon game last night that took 17 innings. The Twins lean on Kyle Gibson, who owns a 2.45 ERA in five home starts.
The Twins opened as slight home favorites with a total of 9.5.
Standout Stats
- Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for the Red Sox and he’s been stellar in his last three road starts. He’s only allowed four earned runs in those outings and since the start of May owns a solid 3.72 ERA in eight starts overall. In two career starts at Target Field, his ERA is 5.91 and his WHIP is 1.68, with his last start coming in 2017.
- The Twins will send Kyle Gibson to the mound and he is coming off a gem vs the Royals in which he held them to two hits and no earned runs over eight innings of work. In five home starts, Gibson has been excellent with a 2.45 ERA and holding opposing batters to a .177 average. In six career starts vs the Red Sox, he owns a 2.68 ERA.
- The Twins offense can be found at the top of the leaderboard for most offensive categories and one phase where they stand out is vs left-handed pitching. Over the last 30 days, they rank in the top three in MLB in batting average, runs and home runs vs lefties.
- A lot of criticism was directed at the Red Sox relievers coming into the season but over the last two weeks, they’ve been stellar. The bullpen owns a 3.34 ERA in that span (ranked fifth) while holding teams to a .246 batting average.
- Although the UNDER has hit in five of the last six games in this matchup, there are a lot of OVER trends for these starters. The OVER has hit in 11 of Rodriguez’s 14 starts this season and it has also hit in nine of Gibson’s 13 starts this year.
My Best Bet for Red Sox vs Twins
Twins moneyline
I was tempted to take the UNDER 9.5 but Eduardo Rodriguez scares me. I’ve been burned by him too many times to trust him on an UNDER play so I’d rather just bank on the AL-leading Twins to hold home serve.
Kyle Gibson has been arguably Minnesota’s best pitcher this season and he has proven when pitching at home and when facing the Red Sox that he can be a difference maker. With the odds floating around a pick’em for this matchup, I have no problem banking on the Twins again.
