The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians take the field for a rubber match in the conclusion of their three-game series tonight. In what could be a potential ALCS matchup, neither team seems to want to tip their hand as they both have relievers in Hector Velazquez and Adam Plutko getting the ball in the first inning. The Red Sox opened as slight favorites to clinch their best record in franchise history.
- Adam Plutko has a 5.37 ERA in 11 starts in 2018.
- Cleveland is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home when facing Boston.
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the last 7 games in this matchup.
Red Sox vs Indians Game Center
Breaking Down the Pitching Matchup
Hector Velazquez gets the nod in the series finale and he has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen in 2018. Velasquez will be making only his fifth start since the All-Star break and in his last start, he threw four innings and allowed five hits and two runs in a victory over the Braves. The Red Sox may be doing a full night of bullpen pitchers to keep their starters fresh as their relievers rank eighth in MLB with a 3.58 ERA in 2018. Expect Velazquez to go five innings at the most.
In the Indians’ dugout, Cleveland looks to be taking the same approach as it has Adam Plutko as the starter and it’s his 11th start of the season. He owns a 5.37 ERA from those appearances and his last start, he allowed five earned runs on nine hits vs the Blue Jays. The Indians’ bullpen has been one of their sore spots this season as they rank 24th in MLB with a 4.55 ERA for relievers. Since both teams are employing the reliever-turned-starter strategy, there isn’t a clear edge in this department.
Indians have Held Their Own At Home vs Sox
Boston may have the best record in MLB but Cleveland has not been a pushover at home when the Red Sox come to town. In their last 17 games when hosting Boston, the Indians are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games. Since the All-Star break, the Indians own the third best ERA in the majors at 3.45 while ranking in the top 10 in almost every major offensive category except for doubles.
What Should Totals Bettors Do?
The total opened at 9.5 and bettors trying to decide which way to go should consider the OVER. The OVER has hit in five of Boston’s last six games on the road with an average combined score of 11.3 runs per game. Totals bettors should also note that the OVER has hit in five of the last seven games in this matchup.
My Pick is...
To take the OVER. Both of these teams have locked in their postseason slots and both have offenses that could explode at any time. Neither bullpen is bullet-proof when facing these type of high-powered hitters and 21 runs were scored in the first two games of this series.
