Charlie Morton has been a victim of the Astros’ success this postseason as he hasn’t been on the mound in a game situation since the final day of the regular season. Morton will go on 17 days’ rest tonight as Houston looks to climb back into the ALCS vs the Red Sox as a -150 betting favorite.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of Boston’s last nine games when playing Houston.
- Houston leads MLB with a .262 batting average and .859 OPS in the postseason.
- Boston has scored 15 runs on 18 hits in its last two games.
I’ll Be Betting the OVER in Game 4
If the first three games of this series are any indication, bettors can confidently put money on OVER 8.5 runs. The evidence is piling up that these two teams can’t keep the runs off the board. The average combined score in the ALCS is 10.33 with all three games hitting the OVER. In fact, eight of the last nine games between these teams have finished OVER the closing total.
The Astros lead the postseason with a .262 batting average and .859 OPS while the Red Sox have scored 15 runs on 18 hits in their past two wins. That provides a big challenge for tonight’s starting pitchers, Rick Porcello and Charlie Morton.
Pressure on the Starters
There are different types of pressure on the starters in tonight’s game but big pressure nonetheless. Charlie Morton, who had a phenomenal regular season, is making his first appearance since September 30 due to the Astros’ sweep of the Cleveland Indians. Morton had a career year, finishing with 30 starts, a 1.16 WHIP and 3.13 ERA – all career bests.
The six-foot-five 34-year-old has made five postseason starts in his career, one in 2013 and four last year. He’s compiled a 2-2 record and 4.03 ERA in the playoffs and will have a big challenge to overcome as he needs to hit the ground running after being on the shelf for 2.5 weeks. Morton made one start vs Boston this year, a 5-3 Houston win on September 8.
Rick Porcello has started one game and worked another two out of the bullpen in this postseason and is proving to be a valuable asset for Alex Cora. The Sox got a strong six innings from Nathan Eovaldi in Game 3 but still needed to use four relievers to finish the game, although things got a little easier after the five-run eighth inning.
Porcello pitched the eighth inning in Game 2, throwing 18 pitches to strike out two batters and get a ground-ball out. He didn’t allow a baserunner. He was the winning pitcher in Boston’s series-clinching victory over the Yankees, pitching five innings while allowing four hits and one earned run.
Both Lineups Successful vs Starting Pitchers
Charlie Morton’s numbers vs the Red Sox roster are not good. At all. The Red Sox lineup has 30 hits in 88 at-bats against Houston’s Game 4 starter for a .341 batting average and .953 OPS. In the September 8 game, Morton allowed seven hits, including a home run, and struck out only three Red Sox batters through five innings.
Rick Porcello has fared a little better vs Houston but certainly doesn’t have sparkling numbers against its lineup. George Springer, Jose Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez are a combined 13-for-37 vs Porcello in their career, helping contribute to the Astros’ .287 batting average and .887 OPS against the 10-year veteran.
