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World Series Trophy in the Building as Red Sox Turn to Price

David Price #24 of the Boston Red Sox delivers the pitch during the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Three of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 26, 2018 in Los Angeles, California.

David Price, who started the ALCS clincher, will have a chance to clinch another series for Boston tonight at Dodger Stadium. Price has seemingly exorcized previous playoff demons and will go head-to-head with a guy who has plenty of playoff demons of his own, Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers were heavy favorites in Game 3 and 4 – and the line opened with LA as a -145 favorite in Game 5. The Red Sox opened at +125 and the total opened at 7.5.

SHARK BITES
  • The Dodgers are slashing .194/.264/.306 through four games in the World Series.
  • Boston is 40/154 (.260) vs left-handed pitching in the postseason (three home runs).
  • Clayton Kershaw has a 0.60 ERA and 0.47 WHIP in two home playoff starts this year.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Game Center

The Price is Right

David Price has been able to put it together in his last two starts and he’s done it in a really impressive way. He has gone six innings in each of his last two starts (Game 5 ALCS, Game 2 World Series) and allowed just two earned runs in total. For good measure, he came on in relief in Game 3 and warmed up in the late innings of Game 4.

Clayton Kershaw has been hit and miss as a playoff performer through his career, but in starts at Dodger Stadium in this postseason, he has been near unhittable. Kershaw has thrown a combined 15 innings vs Atlanta and Milwaukee at home and has compiled a 0.60 ERA and 0.47 WHIP. Until the late stages of Game 4, the Dodgers pitchers as a group were near unhittable in LA

Weak Plate Approaches Leading to Weak Contact

The Dodgers are hitting just .194 in this World Series and if you’re a Dodgers fan it’s gotta be frustrating to see the all or nothing home run approach resulting in pop up after pop up. Their “clutch” hitters in Turner and Machado are among the worst offenders and with them in key spots in the lineup, it’s certainly an all or nothing approach – never a great thing to bet on.

While it’s clear that the stats show that over time more runs are driven in because of launch angle and exit velocity, in the microenvironment of a single game in a seven-game series, swinging for singles and doubles is probably a better way to go.

My Pick for Tonight

I like UNDER 7.5 runs for this game and I’m very comfortable with the first-five innings total UNDER 4. Boston at +120 on the moneyline is going to get a long look from me. The Dodgers have not been able to hit, Kershaw and Price have both been good and with the pressure of the moment, batters usually take a few innings to get going.

I really do think that Boston wraps this up tonight. I have more confidence in David Price vs the LA lineup than Clayton Kershaw vs the Boston lineup right now. Boston roughed up Kershaw for seven hits and five earned runs in Game 1 while Price shut down the Dodgers in Game 2.  

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