Are Alex Cora’s boys putting it in cruise control coming down the back stretch or is it panic time in Boston? After dropping two of three to Houston earlier this month, MLB’s best team is in danger of being swept by the New York Yankees tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees open as a -145 favorite behind Masahiro Tanaka in the series finale.
- Boston’s bullpen has a 4.48 ERA since August 15 (23rd in MLB).
- The Yankees are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents.
- The UNDER has hit in seven straight Eduardo Rodriguez starts with an average combined score of 6.71.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game Center
Tanaka Having a September for the Record Books
Masahiro Tanaka has made three starts this month, averaging seven innings per outing, and has allowed just one run for an ERA of 0.43. Furthermore, his WHIP in September is 0.81 as he’s struck out 24 batters vs three walks. Opponents are batting .187 against the fifth-year right-hander from Japan in September.
He will get his stiffest test of the month tonight at home against the Red Sox, who have had success against him this season. It is Tanaka’s fourth start vs the Yankees’ fiercest rival and the first three haven’t been great. Boston is hitting .328 against him with 21 hits and 11 earned runs in 15 innings, although in his most recent start at Fenway on August 5, he gave up just one earned run and struck out nine in 4.2 innings.
Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) is having his best statistical year since joining the Red Sox in 2015 but it’s important to note his results in his two most high-leverage starts in 2018. Against Houston on September 8, Rodriguez didn’t get out of the fourth inning before allowing five earned runs on six hits and two home runs. On June 29 against the Yankees, he gave up two more home runs and five earned runs in a loss to the Yankees.
The Yankees lineup has a career slash line of .279/.340/.531 against the Venezuelan southpaw for a career OPS of .870. Interestingly, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 1-for-10 against him. New York leads MLB in home runs vs left-handed pitching with 73, including the three they hit off David Price last night.
Red Sox Bullpen Has to be a Concern
Pitching, especially out of the bullpen, is critical at this time of the year and into the playoffs. When you look at this potential ALDS series from a bullpen perspective (and really, any bullpen vs the Yankees bullpen), there is a concern for Boston supporters and bettors. Boston’s bullpen has an ERA of 4.48 since the middle of August and concern is growing for what exactly Alex Cora’s plan will be in the later innings of ball games.
The most used relievers since August 15 are Drew Pomeranz (6.89 ERA), Brandon Workman (3.07 ERA), Joe Kelly (5.40 ERA) and Tyler Thornburg (6.75 ERA). Minor league call-up Ryan Brasier has been their best option with a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings. This news is not exactly inspiring confidence.
Best Bets for Tonight’s Game
I’ve gotta believe that New York is going to sweep this series. The Yanks have more to play for right now and Boston just can’t seem to win at Yankee Stadium, going 6-16 SU over the past two calendar years (2-6 SU this year) in the Bronx.
I also like UNDER 8.0 runs as a totals bet in this one. Seven straight E-Rod starts have hit the UNDER as have five of Tanaka’s last six starts. The one that didn’t was an 11-0 win over Toronto.
