The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees split the first two games of their ALDS in Beantown and now head to the Big Apple for Game 3 in this five-game heavyweight matchup. The Yankees stole home-field advantage after clobbering David Price and the Red Sox bullpen for six runs in Game 2. New York will send Luis Severino to the mound to stare down Boston’s potent lineup while the Sox counter with Nathan Eovaldi. The Yankees opened as -175 favorites with a total of 8.5.
- The Red Sox are 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games vs the Yankees.
- The Yankees are 12-2 SU in their last 14 home games with Luis Severino as the starter.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Red Sox’ last seven games vs the Yankees.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game Center
Is Severino Back to Early-Season Form?
Luis Severino will toe the rubber in a pivotal Game 3 tonight and based on his last four starts, he looks to be back on his game. The 24-year-old has only allowed four earned runs over his last five starts and was masterful in the wild-card game vs the Athletics when he only allowed two hits over four innings of work. When he faced this lineup on September 19 at Yankee Stadium, he was his usual self, yielding six hits and one run in seven innings, and it obviously helps that his offense put 10 runs on the board. Considering New York is 12-2 SU in its last 14 home games with Sevvie on the hill, I’m leaning heavily to the Yankees in this one.
As for the Red Sox, they’ve got Nathan Eovaldi set to stare down the Bronx Bombers and while he fared well in his last road start vs the Yankees, he has not been reliable overall in away games. He owns a 5.14 ERA in 13 road starts in 2018 and the Red Sox are 2-6 SU in their last eight with Eovaldi as the starter. The one stat that stands out in his favor is he doesn’t give up a ton of home runs as he has only allowed three in a Red Sox uniform in 54 innings. That being said, this will be the biggest game of his life in arguably the most hostile environment in MLB so I’m not confident he can keep the Yankees off the board.
Yankees are Tough to Beat in the Bronx
It should be no surprise to bettors that the Yankees are good at Yankee Stadium as they own the second-best home record in MLB this season at 53-28 SU and are riding a seven-game win streak in the Big Apple in postseason play (7-0 ATS). New York has been fairly dominant when hosting the MLB-leading Red Sox this season, going 8-3 SU in the last 11 games in this matchup in NY. It will be interesting to see if Boston’s pitchers can keep the Yankees from crushing the ball as they lead MLB in homers this season and hit 144 of their 262 dingers in the Bronx.
Totals Bettors Should Be On the OVER
The total opened at 8.5 and trends are pointing to another scorefest in this rivalry tonight. The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven games in this matchup with an average combined score of 12.4 runs per game. Both of these teams are ranked near the top of every offensive category in MLB and while Luis Severino may have a decent W-L record, OVER bettors have been cashing in on his starts. In his last 15 trips to the mound, the OVER has hit in 12 of those games with an average combined score of 10.8 runs per game.
My Pick Is…
To take both the OVER and the Yankees -1.5 runline on separate bets. I expect the Yankees to crush Eovaldi and a Red Sox bullpen that has allowed five earned runs in 10 innings of work in this series. New York’s power is scary to behold and while the Red Sox offense is no slouch either, I think Severino will keep them contained and the Yankees bullpen (1.80 ERA in 15 innings) will shut the door.
