After dropping four of six games on their recent road trip, the Philadelphia Phillies return to the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park to host the MLB-leading Boston Red Sox tonight. The Phillies are trailing the Braves by one game in the NL East and will lean on starter Nick Pivetta to try to shut down Boston’s sluggers. Pivetta is coming off two great outings where he only allowed two earned runs total and sports a 4.14 ERA in 12 home starts this season. Despite owning the best home record in the National League (38-18 SU in 56 games), the Phillies opened as +130 dogs to get the victory.
- The Phillies are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home.
- The Red Sox are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games with Rick Porcello as the starter.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Phillies’ last seven games.
View the Red Sox vs Phillies matchup page
Porcello Has Been More Hit Than Miss
Rick Porcello may be a forgotten man in the high-profile Boston rotation but he’s been getting it done for the AL East leaders. Porcello owns a 3.81 ERA in 13 road starts this season and the Sox are 5-2 SU in his last seven road appearances (two losses to the Blue Jays). The Red Sox may have made it a bit easier for the right-hander to close the door on teams too as Boston is averaging a great 6.04 runs per game in his 24 starts this season. Runline bettors may also be intrigued about backing the Red Sox tonight considering Boston is 16-8 ATS in those 24 appearances.
As for the Phillies, Nick Pivetta has looked sharp in his last two outings vs the Marlins and Diamondbacks, limiting them to nine hits and two runs total in the victories. Pivetta has not faced the Red Sox in 2018 but in June 2017, he was sensational by throwing seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts in a win.
NL’s Best Home Record vs AL’s Second-Best Road Record
Something will have to give tonight between these two squads as the Phillies own the best home record in the National League at 38-18 SU while the Red Sox are the second-best road team in the American League at 43-20 SU. The Phillies are riding a six-game win streak at Citizens Bank Park and are 11-2 in their last 13 games at their field. Holding opposing batting orders in check has been the recipe for Philadelphia’s home success as teams are only batting .230 (ranked 4th in MLB) in the City of Brotherly Love where the Phillies staff sports a 3.45 ERA.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games on the road and offensively are tearing the cover off the ball. Boston ranks in the top five in all of the sexy offensive categories on the road (homers, OPS, runs per game, RBIs, batting average) and their duo of J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have combined for 32 home runs and 75 RBIs in a combined 115 away games in 2018. Good pitching usually trumps good hitting but given the way the Red Sox have been playing lately, it’s hard to bet against them.
Is the UNDER in Play in Philly?
The total opened at 9 and bettors may want to consider the UNDER in this matchup. The UNDER has hit in six of Philadelphia’s last seven games with an average combined score of 7.6 runs per game. These two teams met at the end of July at Fenway Park and both games went wayyy UNDER with an average combined score of 2.6 runs per game so it could be another low-scoring affair in the Land of the Liberty Bell.
