Pitching Issues Point to OVER Play in Rays-Red Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays are 1-4 in their last five games against the Boston Red Sox. The Rays and Red Sox are set to clash in a three-game series with first place in the American League East on the line starting in Tampa on Tuesday night.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This game opened as a pick’em with the Rays and Red Sox both going off at -105, but Tampa Bay has emerged as the betting favorite at -120 while Boston is sitting at +100 on the road. The total is set at 8.5 runs in this division rivalry game since Sportsbook at 8 runs. Boston is 17-8 in 25 games as an underdog this season.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Eduardo Rodriguez did not seem to be showing any negative effects from missing the 2020 season with heart-related issues when he got off to a 4-0 start with a 3.52 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP through his first four starts in 2021. It’s been all downhill from there, though, as Rodriguez has posted a 7.63 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP over his last nine starts. He has historically struggled against the Rays with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in nine career starts against Tampa Bay.

Andrew Kittredge has been excellent across 23 bullpen appearances and two starts this season, posting a 1.34 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP in 33.2 innings pitched. Kittredge will serve as an opener in this matchup and isn’t expected to pitch more than one or two innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen.

Boston News & Notes

The Red Sox got off to an early 2-0 lead in the top of the second inning against the Kansas City Royals on Sunday before eventually suffering a 7-3 loss in Kansas City. Pitching continues to be an issue for Boston. The Red Sox rank third-best in the majors in runs scored at 5.03 per game but are 18th in team ERA (4.24). Boston has allowed 6.92 runs per game over its last 12 contests.

Thanks to the team’s elite offense, however, the damage has been minimized to a 6-6 record over that stretch and the Red Sox still enter Tuesday’s action in first place in the AL East at 43-29. Still, it is becoming clear that Boston will need some pitching help to become a legitimate World Series contender this season, whether that help comes via a trade or the return of injured ace Chris Sale.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

The Rays were one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 24-5 record over their previous 29 games and four straight wins heading into their matchup against the Chicago White Sox last Tuesday. Tampa Bay lost that game and the next five to follow to wrap up a disappointing 1-6 road trip with six straight losses. The team was swept in a four-game series against the Seattle Mariners while being outscored 23-13.

Tampa Bay is hoping that a return home can help get things back on track. The Rays are 8-1 in their last nine home games. They are also still well within striking distance of first place in the AL East, sitting just a half-game behind the Red Sox with a record of 43-30 on the season.

Betting Pick: OVER 8.5 runs