The St. Louis Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 games, including five in a row at Busch Stadium, yet they are slight -105 underdogs against the division rival Milwaukee Brewers, who are coming back at -115. Toeing the rubber tonight are Gio Gonzalez and Michael Wacha with the total Sportsbook at 9.5 runs.
Brewers vs Cardinals Game Center
Standout Stats
- St. Louis is 8-2 SU and ATS over its last 10 games and has won its last five home games. On the season, the Cardinals are 35-23 at Busch Stadium.
- Milwaukee is 7-5 SU and 4-8 ATS over its last 12 games but more recently is 2-5 SU and ATS through its last seven. The Brewers are just 28-35 on the road this year.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Brewers’ last 13 contests with an average combined score of 10.92. Conversely, the total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Cardinals’ last 14 with an average combined score of 7.14. Lastly, the total has split through the 11 meetings between these clubs in 2019 with five going OVER, five going UNDER and one push with an average combined score of 10.09.
- The Brewers are 8-3 over Gio Gonzalez’s 11 trips to the mound this season and he is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The lefty has hurled just one quality start.
- He is averaging his lowest K/9 rate since 2010 and his highest HR/9 rate since 2009.
- Opponents are hitting .236 against Gonzalez and of the contact against, 31.4 percent has been hard-hit and 15.4 percent has been soft-hit. St. Louis ranks third in hard-hit percentage vs LHP over the last 30 days.
- Gonzalez has a 3.41 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average over his six road appearances. He has much lower K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his home starts. Additionally, he has lower soft-hit and hard-hit percentages.
- St. Louis is 5-6 over Michael Wacha’s 11 starts this season and he is 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, including five relief appearances. He has tossed five quality starts.
- He is averaging the lowest K/9 and the highest BB/9 and HR/9 rates of his career. Additionally, he has a career-high 5.44 ERA and 5.98 FIP.
- Opponents are hitting .290 against Wacha and he has a career-high 1.63 WHIP. Of the contact against, 38.8 percent has been hard-hit and 13.8 percent has been soft-hit. Milwaukee ranks 27th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
- Wacha has a 5.51 ERA and a .313 opponent batting average over his seven trips to the mound at Busch Stadium. He has lower HR/9 and BB/9 rates while having a higher K/9 rate compared to his road outings. He does have a lower soft-hit percentage and a higher hard-hit percentage, though.
- The Cardinals are 12-13 against left-handed starters in 2019, sitting 23rd in batting average and 29th in runs scored vs southpaws, but have also had the fewest plate appearances. Over the last 30 days, St. Louis ranks ninth in batting average and dead last in runs scored vs LHP.
- The Brewers are 45-40 against right-handed starters this year and are 16th in batting average and 11th in runs scored vs righties. Milwaukee is also 12th in batting average and 18th in runs scored vs RHP over the last 30 days.
My Best Bet for Milwaukee vs St. Louis
St. Louis moneyline (-105)
The Cardinals have been absolutely rolling in the second half of the season, all the way up to the division lead, and more recently they have won eight of their last 10 games. Additionally, St. Louis’ bullpen has the second-lowest ERA over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been flirting with mediocrity recently and have dropped five straight games to the Cardinals. I think that trend continues tonight.
