Chicago and Arizona opened as a pick’em tonight in Phoenix as Robbie Ray and Cole Hamels go head-to-head. In early betting, the line has shifted Arizona to the favorite. The Diamondbacks, who led the NL West by 1.5 games just three weeks ago, have lost 14 of their last 18 games and now sit six games out of both the division lead and a wild-card spot with 10 games remaining. The Cubs lead the NL Central by 3.5 over Milwaukee.
- Arizona is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games.
- The Cubs are 4-0 in their last four games vs Arizona (avg. winning margin 3.5).
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games with Cole Hamels as the starting pitcher.
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Game Center
Pitching Matchup
Even though Arizona is on a terrible slide to end 2018, Robbie Ray has been a steady presence in the D-backs rotation. Since August 1, Ray is 11th in the majors in opponents’ batting average at .191 through 42.2 innings. Over that stretch, he has allowed more than two earned runs just once in eight starts but hasn’t gotten the run support from Arizona’s offense as the Snakes are 4-4 SU in those games.
Since arriving in Chicago, Cole Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 1.57 ERA in 57.1 innings pitched and has kept opposing hitters to a .219 batting average. He’s allowed just eight extra-base hits as a Cub. Over his 13-year career, the southpaw from San Diego has kept this Arizona lineup to a .200 batting average and .593 OPS.
Diamondbacks Hitting Just .207 in September
The Diamondbacks have been de-fanged and have the bite of a garter snake in September, hitting .207 with a .643 OPS. Arizona is scoring just 3.5 runs per game this month while allowing an average of 5.5.
Cubs Aren’t Roaring Either
The good news for the Diamondbacks coming into tonight’s game is that Chicago hasn’t exactly been ripping the cover off the ball this month either. The Cubs are 25th in MLB with a .662 team OPS while their .233 team batting average is 23rd.
My Bet for This Game
The bet that jumps out to me in this game is UNDER 4.0 total runs in the first five innings. We know that Ray and Hamels are likely to give their teams a strong outing and with both offenses struggling this month, it’s advantage pitchers.
I might also take a look at UNDER 8.0 runs for the full game as the UNDER has hit in seven of Chicago’s last eight games with Hamels as the starter. The total has also hit the UNDER in four of Arizona’s last five games with Robbie Ray as the starter.
If I have to choose a team on the moneyline, it is Chicago. Despite this game Sportsbook as a pick’em, the lines have shifted to Chicago at +100 and +105 in early betting. Arizona just hasn’t been winning while Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last six games.
