Jed Hoyer saw that Cole Hamels was struggling with the Texas Rangers but had the foresight to make a savvy deal to acquire him for Chicago’s playoff drive. So far it is one of the best deals in all of MLB this season. Hamels is 2-0 in three starts for the North Siders with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. The Cubs look to continue their success with Hamels on the mound tonight when they open as the favorite at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
- The Cubs are 6-2 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Pirates.
- Javy Baez has five home runs and a 1.116 OPS vs Pittsburgh this season.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last nine games with Trevor Williams as the starting pitcher.
Mound Matchup
Cole Hamels (7-9, 4.22 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) has been more like 2011 Cole Hamels than 2018 Cole Hamels since arriving in Chicago. He’s been outstanding for Joe Maddon’s squad and they’re expecting more of the same out of him tonight. Hamels’ first start with the Cubs was here just 16 days ago when he threw 95 pitches in five innings, allowing three hits and zero earned runs.
Third-year big leaguer Trevor Williams (10-8, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) makes his 50th career MLB start tonight. Williams has been outstanding since July 11, going 4-1 with an unbelievable 0.62 ERA. He’s accomplished that against some pretty good teams: Cleveland, Washington, the Mets, St. Louis and San Francisco. In his career against this Cubs lineup, he’s given up just two home runs in 82 at-bats and a .744 OPS. In his only other start vs Chicago this season, Williams gave up four hits and one earned run in six innings on April 12, a game Pittsburgh won 6-1.
Bettors Clamoring to Bet the UNDER
Our consensus data shows bettors scurrying to bet UNDER the Sportsbook total of 8.0 on tonight’s game based on recent trends for both pitchers and these teams. In the last seven games between these NL Central rivals, the total has gone UNDER with an average combined score of 5.43. UNDER bettors have cashed in seven of Chicago’s last nine games with an average combined score of 7.0.
Trevor Williams starts have consistently hit the UNDER. Eight of his last nine starts have gone UNDER the closing total. In those eight games, the average combined score is 3.5. Two of Cole Hamels’ three starts since joining the Cubs have hit the UNDER. The only game that hasn’t was the start against Pittsburgh.
Cubs Have Had Success Against Pittsburgh Pitching
Through the first 12 games of the season series, Chicago is averaging just under five runs per game and slashing .283/.357/.453 against the Bucs. Javy Baez has done the most damage in this matchup, swatting five home runs and collecting 11 RBIs. Baez is batting .333 with a 1.116 OPS vs the Pirates.
Conversely, Pittsburgh’s bats haven’t had the same success in a reverse role. An average of .235 with an OPS of .696 has contributed to the Pirates’ five wins and seven losses. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.5 runs per game.
