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Hellickson Has Struggled Mightily at Home

Jeremy Hellickson #58 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Nationals Park on May 14, 2019 in Washington, DC.

After going nearly a month without a series win, the Washington Nationals have a chance to accomplish their second series win in a row against the Chicago Cubs tonight. Sportsbooks opened the Cubs as -133 road favorites with a total of 10.

Cubs vs Nationals Game Center

Standout Stats

  • After the Cubs used six home runs in a 14-6 rout to open the series, the Nationals bounced back in a 5-2 victory on Saturday. Kris Bryant hit three home runs in the series opener.
  • Kyle Hendricks is listed as the probable starter for the Cubbies. Hendricks (3-4, 2.86 ERA) gave up seven runs in five innings in his final start in April before he pitched his third career shutout May 3 against St. Louis. Hendricks followed that up with consecutive eight-inning outings while giving up a total of one earned run and striking out 14.
  • Jeremy Hellickson is slated to counter for the Nationals. Hellickson (2-2, 6.00) hasn’t finished six innings in six straight starts. Hellickson was taken for five runs in five frames in a loss to the New York Mets last Tuesday.
  • Hellickson has an 8.04 ERA through his first four appearances at home in 2019. Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are a combined 4-for-10 with two home runs against Hellickson.
  • Quietly, the Cubbies have been one of the best UNDER bets in baseball over the past few weeks. The UNDER is 8-2 in Chicago’s last 10 games.

My best bet for Cubs-Nationals

OVER 10 runs

Despite the aforementioned Cubs UNDER trend, I’m going against the grain and taking the OVER in this one. Hellickson’s numbers at home are brutal this season and I expect the Cubs offense to take full advantage of his struggles in D.C.

With 27 runs scored in the first two games of the series, expect to see more offensive fireworks in this one.