The Colorado Rockies have made quick work of the Arizona Diamondbacks through two games of their final head-to-head series and will look to put the nail in the coffin when they renew acquaintances today. The Rockies will have lefty Kyle Freeland on the mound and he’s coming off his first loss in over three months when Colorado lost to the Dodgers last week. The Rockies are slight dogs even though they’ve gone 13-2 SU in their last 15 games with Freeland on the mound.
- The Rockies are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games with Kyle Freeland as the starter.
- Zack Godley owns a 9.24 ERA in three starts in September.
- The UNDER has hit 10 of Rockies’ last 13 road games.
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Game Center
Rockies Should Be the Fave when Freeland Starts
The Colorado Rockies know who their ace is and that’s Kyle Freeland. The lefty sports a 2.95 ERA this season and has won three of his four starts in September including one at home vs this Diamondbacks lineup. Freeland has been on a tear since the start of July with a 2.90 ERA in his last 15 starts with the Rockies going 13-2 SU in that span. His road splits do give me pause however as his ERA jumps to 3.45 in away games (17 starts) and he has allowed 3 or more earned runs in nine of those games. It’s not damning evidence but something to note for Rockies’ backers.
Godley Is Having a September To Forget
As for ‘Zona, they’ll lean on Zack “God-Awful” Godley, who has been getting torched lately as he owns 9.24 ERA in three starts this month. Godley got destroyed by this lineup in Colorado on September 10th when he allowed seven hits and five earned runs. In his last two starts at home, Godley allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings vs the Padres and Mariners, which are teams not exactly known for their offensive prowess. I expect him to get roughed up again today which is why I’ll be fading the Diamondbacks.
Rockies Have Been an UNDER Bettor’s Best Friend
The total opened at 8 in this divisional matchup and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The UNDER has hit in 10 of the Rockies’ last 13 road games with an average combined score of 5.6 runs per game. The Rockies’ offense doesn’t travel like it should despite having two players (Arenado and Story) who have combined for 67 homers and 104 RBI. I would caution UNDER bettors that Colorado could get this OVER on their own with the way Godley is pitching lately so I’m probably going to go in a different direction for my pick.
My Pick is…
To take Colorado’s +1.5 runline. The Rockies have their best pitcher on the mound while the Diamondbacks have their worst. Colorado is 5-1 SU in the last six games in this matchup and at this point of the season, is the better team. If the runline’s value isn’t enough for you, I wouldn't knock you for taking the Colorado ML.
