We've got two new MLB expert picks for today. I'm quite keen on the OVER in the Yanks-Rox game, and then I'll tail the red-hot Astros against the Orioles.
Here are my two MLB expert picks today:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Yankees/Rockies OVER 8.5 Runs (-105)
Rockies vs Yankees Odds -- Game Time 7:05 p.m. ET
We've got a very intriguing pitching matchup in this contest. Now, OVER bets don't always mean the pitchers will stink, but, in this case, Kyle Freeland's outings have turned a little sour lately.
The Rox lefty has seen the total go OVER 8.5 runs in four of his last five contests, and now he gets the red-hot Yankees offense, who will feast on a soft-throwing left-hander like Freeland. Active Yankees hitters own an .845 OPS against Freeland, including a notable .530 SLG, which will play big at Yankee Stadium's short porch.
In summary, I think the Yanks will rip Freeland for a few homers. And if they don't get to him, they'll attack Colorado's MLB-worst bullpen (5.63 ERA). Good offense + bad pitching is a good equation for an OVER bet.
At the same time, I think Carlos Rodon could be in for a shaky outing. He might not be as unhinged as Freeland, but there's a chance the Rox tag him for a crooked number. He owns a 4.40 ERA in his last three starts, so the cracks are there.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Astros ML (-115) vs Orioles
Astros vs Orioles Odds - Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
If you haven't heard, the Astros are hot lately. Houston has won seven of its last 10 contests, and with the Mariners in disarray, the 'Stros should waltz to yet another AL West title. The offense is in full sync, and, more importantly, the club's pitching has overcome its early struggles.
Take Hunter Brown for example. The Astros right-hander has posted a 2.36 ERA in his last seven starts, during which the club is 5-2 SU. Houston plays winning ball when he's on the mound, and I have great faith in the Astros' ability to produce off O's lefty Cade Povich, who has looked very unsteady in early MLB action. Povich owns a 5.77 ERA and has yielded nearly as many walks (4.7 B/9) as strikeouts recorded (6.4 K/9).
An early lead will go a long way in this contest. I'll bet the top of the order gets off to a furious start vs Povich, putting our collective minds at ease for the rest of the game. This bet is worth the risk at -115.
