Another day, another slate of MLB expert picks today!
We'll start with a fade of the Blue Jays, as they re-use a starting pitcher who has struggled this year. After that, we turn a Giants ML pick in the NL West, where Blake Snell (Snellzilla) has terrified opposing hitters for the last few weeks.
Here are my two MLB picks for August 7th:
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Orioles ML (-150) vs Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
Toronto bested Baltimore yesterday on the back of a strong offensive effort against the O's bullpen. The Blue Jays offense is humming right now and can outhit the Orioles on any given night. That said, the Jays' run prevention is garbo, as the kids say. Bowden Francis won't help much.
First off, Francis has been great as a reliever in his career (2.83 ERA) but terrible as a starter, where he has allowed 15 earned runs, including six homers, in 18 innings, good for a 7.50 ERA. Bowden has had little success in four career starts, plus he threw out of the bullpen last series at Camden Yards, only adding to the fatigue and pressure of this outing.
While Trevor Rogers is no saint on the hill for Baltimore, the Blue Jays are worse vs LHPs (.672 OPS) than RHPs (.701) this year, leaving room for some success.
On top of it all, the Blue Jays used Genesis Cabrera and Chad Green last night, putting their bullpen in flux. While Baltimore's 'pen imploded yesterday, the O's have far better relievers (Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, Seranthony Dominguez, etc.) and should win a bullpen battle with Toronto nine times out of 10.
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Giants ML (-165) vs Nationals
Giants vs Nationals Odds - Game Time: 6:45 pm ET
Snellzilla is pitching like the monster he truly is. After a hideous start to the year, Blake Snell is on a roll, carving for a 0.55 ERA in his last five starts, allowing just two runs over 33 innings, while the Giants are 4-1 SU during that span. Go back a little further, and San Fran is 6-2 SU in the left-hander's last eight outings. This is great timing for a ML bet against a weak Nationals lineup.
Washington struggles in general, but the club is especially vulnerable against left-handed pitching. The Nats rank 27th in MLB with a .660 OPS vs lefties.
It's not like the G-Men have an electric offense, but this club is winning games. Now 12-3 in their last 15 contests, the Giants and Snell are legitimate contenders for the final NL Wild Card spot. I used this strategy when I bet Dylan Cease and the Padres yesterday. Like the Padres, the Giants are fighting hard and they have a superstar starter on the mound, fresh off a no-hitter performance.
