We're diving mid-week into some excellent MLB expert picks. Today, the Blue Jays vs Astros game and Orioles vs Mariners matchups caught my eye.
Here are my MLB expert picks for July 2:
MLB Expert Picks: July 2, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Blue Jays (-115) vs Astros
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
Jose Berrios brings the certainty in this matchup, while Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti is a wild card. The rookie right-hander alternates between good and bad outings, leaving an ugly betting mess in his wake.
Neither Berrios nor Arrighetti are especially strong in their betting trends, unless you're prop-betting Arrighetti's walks. I'd recommend that prop against a very disciplined Toronto team.
Otherwise, the Jays have the pitching edge Tuesday, as Berrios is a higher-caliber pitcher. And on top of that, the Jays will have a more rested bullpen. Houston's Josh Hader will likely be unavailable after pitching two of the last three contests. Bryan Abreu will also be down. The Blue Jays bullpen is awful, but at least righties Trevor Richards and Chad Green will be available.
Houston is a hotter team right now, but with the pitching edge in Toronto's favor and Arrighetti's propensity for making opponents' at-bats easy, I fancy a ML bet on the Blue Jays at fair odds.
Pick 2: Orioles (-115) vs Mariners
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
I've scoped this contest up and down and settled on Orioles ML as the way to go. I'd recommend avoiding the runline on either end, as the value doesn't live up to the likelihood.
We've got a fine pitching matchup in this one between Grayson Rodriguez and George Kirby, two righties with very similar numbers. Rodriguez dominated the M's earlier this season, tossing six innings of one-run ball in May. Kirby had trouble, allowing five earned runs, including two homers, in six innings.
I expect Rodriguez to dominate again. Thanks in part to that smooth outing last time around, opposing Mariners hitters are slashing .125/.250/.125 off Rodriguez. That's right, the club is 3-for-24 overall vs the Orioles youngster.
I'd like the UNDER in this contest if Kirby's numbers weren't so bad vs Baltimore. The Orioles have an .812 OPS in 100 at-bats. Gunnar Henderson (3-for-7, HR) and Anthony Santander (4-for-12, 2 HRs) are the X-factors for Baltimore, so I'd take a gander at both their total bases OVERs. Henderson, for example, has taken his total OVER in three of his last five contests.
