With a flurry of fun teams in action Thursday, I've got the MLB expert picks today for you to consider. Firstly, I'm looking at the underdog Padres (+120) to sneak past the tired Rangers, while later in the day, the O's (-150) eye the sweep in Seattle and I'm backing them to do so.
Here are my MLB expert picks for today:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Padres (+120) vs Rangers
San Diego vs Texas Odds - Game Time: 2:35 pm ET
There are elements to analyze ahead of this Padres vs Rangers matchup. Firstly, the odds should be far closer. Texas is 3-7 SU in its last 10, while San Diego is on 10-3 run, cashing six times as an underdog over span. This suggests the Padres deserve a better shake than +120 odds. That's fine, though, as I'll gladly bet the underdog.
The oddsmakers seem to believe Rangers starter Max Scherzer will have his way vs the Friars. History would suggest that's possible, as Scherzer has dominated Padres hitters (.682 OPS) in 121 at-bats. Manny Machado (.190/.203/.483) struggles the most vs Scherzer, so don't hesitate to fade him and bet UNDER 1.5 total bases (-175). So it's possible the former Cy Young winner might cook against SDP, but he'll be limited to a maximum of four innings, and that's when the Padres can step it up.
We'll need Padres starter Michael King to keep things even with Scherzer, and when Mad Max departs, Texas' bullpen might bless this game for San Diego. The Rangers own the seventh-worst bullpen ERA in baseball (4.09) and are likely down a few men after Dane Dunning, Jose Leclerc, and closer Kirby Yates all pitched in yesterday's contest.
Add in a Padres lineup that owns an .808 OPS over the last two weeks, and this will be our best underdog bet of the day.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Orioles (-150) vs Mariners
Baltimore vs Seattle Odds - Game Time: 4:10 pm ET
We can start with the starting pitching discrepancies. Nobody in their right mind will argue Bryce Miller is better than Corbin Burnes, but if you need any more proof, these clubs have faced each other in one series already this year. Burnes tossed six innings of one-run ball and tied his season-high with 11 strikeouts, while Miller allowed four earned runs with just one strikeout through 5.1 innings.
Pick sealed. Just kidding! But the pitching matchup is a big deal, as both these arms are likely to go deep into the game.
Beyond that, there aren't enough folks talking about how hot Baltimore is lately, going 17-11 in June and have won its first two in July, elevating into top spot in the AL East. I fancy the O's as World Series contenders, but for today, they're an easy ML play. The Orioles own an .851 team OPS over the last two weeks, getting big help from Heston Kjerstad (1.208 OPS) and Cedric Mullins (1.058 OPS) during that span.
When the O's depth guys are raking, that's when you know the club is hot. And that's a big part of why Baltimore is on of my expert picks today.
