MLB Expert Picks June 11 2024

MLB Expert Picks For Today: Fade The Rays

I nailed my Monday MLB expert picks with a 2-0 start to the week, so let's keep this perfect rolling into Tuesday.

In my search for continued perfection, I'm actually going to a few underdogs. Here are my two MLB expert picks for June 11th, 2024:

MLB Expert Picks: June 11th, 2024

You can jump directly to today's picks here:

Pick 1: Rockies (+166) vs Twins

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:41 pm ET

I don't really get why the Rockies are such massive underdogs here. They've got Cal Quantrill going on the mound tonight and the young Canadian has quietly been one of the NL's bright spots this season. Quantrill has won five of his last six decisions for Colorado, bringing his ERA down from 5.34 to 3.58 in that time. He's allowed over two earned runs just once in his last seven starts. 

With his recent win streak, Quantrill has been one of the league's most profitable starting pitchers, earning +3.28 units in 13 starts. Against a Twins offense that's fallen to 17th in baseball (.689 OPS) over the last two weeks, Quantrill should have the edge once again.

It also helps that the Rockies are facing Minnesota starter Louie Varland who owns a 9.18 ERA this year and has lost all four of his outings. The Twins have lost Varland's four starts by a combined score of 22-10.

Pick 2: Cubs (+122) vs Rays

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:41 pm ET

We need to have a talk about the Tampa Bay Rays. They're 4-6 in their last ten, have lost four-straight games, have fallen into the basement of the AL East, and rock the league's fourth-worst offense over the last two weeks. They're an ideal fade spot right now, even with Zach Eflin on the mound.

In fact, with Eflin pitching for Tampa we're getting great value on the Cubs here. Eflin is solid, don't get me wrong, but he actually struggles against Chicago. Current Cubs hitters have a 1.043 OPS against Eflin in 75 career at-bats, bashing 13 extra-base hits in that time.

If you're a believer in history, this Cubs pick might worry you a bit, tough. The Cubs are actually 6-10 against the Rays in their last 16 meetings. Though, Chicago took the series 2-1 last year.

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