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MLB Expert Picks For Today: Kikuchi Scares Me Away

It's a fresh week, which means fresh MLB expert picks. I'm splitting my picks between the AL and NL this Monday, and I'll dive into detail in just a moment.

Here are my MLB expert picks for June 17th, 2024:

MLB Expert Picks: June 17th, 2024

You can jump directly to today's picks here:

[tor_vs_bos_if_jays_get_6_get_a_bonus_bet:BET99-2374158]

 

Pick 1: Red Sox (+110) vs Blue Jays

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET

I'm afraid for Yusei Kikuchi, as his grasp has slipped over the last few weeks. After a 2.40 ERA through his first 10 starts, the lefty has tumbled, allowing 24 hits in 19.1 innings and posting a 5.12 ERA in his last four starts. 

With a normal pitcher, I'd categorize this as a blip. But with Yusei, it could be a landslide. Blue Jays fans have seen him come unglued in years past. While he's coming off a five-inning shutout, he walked four batters in that contest.

Boston is hot right now, too. The Red Sox's .835 OPS ranks third in MLB over the last two weeks, while the club's .298 BA is the best in baseball during that span. Active Sox hitters also own a .297/.350/.486 slash vs Kikuchi. Keep an eye on Masataka Yoshida (2-for-4 vs Kikuchi with a HR), as his track record suggest an OVER 0.5 bases is in the cards.

Toronto's offense has shown flashes lately, but the Sox are hot, too, and I love their value at plus-money Monday. 

[tor_vs_bos_if_jays_get_6_get_a_bonus_bet:BET99-2374158]

 

Pick 2: Dodgers (-165) vs Rockies

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 8:40 pm ET

Dodgers at -165 vs the Rockies? In this economy?

While this is mostly an odds play for me, some additional factors work in Los Angeles' direction. For instance, Dodgers hitters own a .763 OPS vs Rox starter Cal Quantrill. That's not fantastic, but it's not brutal either. Freddie Freeman is 6-for-12 lifetime vs Quantrill with three extra-base hits. 

James Paxton dices Rockies hitters, holding active opponents to a .696 OPS. Beyond Charlie Blackmon, not many Rox hitters have seen the big Canadian lefty, which leaves a bit of intrigue for our matchup.

If you think my ML pick is lame, I suggest parlaying the Dodgers to win with the OVER 11.5 runs (-125). It sounds outrageous, but the Rockies and Dodgers have gone OVER that total in four of the last six contests at Coors Field.

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