Phillies vs Blue Jays

MLB Expert Picks For Today: Gausman Is Bad, But Bello Is Worse

Let's break down another day of MLB expert picks. Yesterday, we split even but fell down in unit count. Time to get back in the win column Wednesday.

Here are my MLB expert picks for June 19th, 2024:

MLB Expert Picks: June 19th, 2024

You can jump directly to today's picks here:

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Pick 1: Blue Jays (-130) vs Red Sox

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET

There's no cheating these odds, which are set perfectly based on tonight's pitching matchup. I'm taking the Blue Jays, not just because I believe in starter Kevin Gausman, but because I also have little faith in Sox starter Brayan Bello.

Let's address Gausman. While he's pitched better lately, the Red Sox tend to rip him, with active Boston hitters boasting an .859 OPS. Jarren Durran is particularly a beast vs Gausman, batting 5-for-10 with four doubles. I'd hit his OVER props today. 

But even if you're sketched about Gausman, you can bet the Jays. Bello has been brutal lately. The 25-year-old righty has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts. During that span, his ERA is 6.89 while opponents slash .302/.381/.481. 

Even if Durran and Rafael Devers get to Gausman, the Blue Jays' contact-heavy lineup will knock Bello around for some limited run support. Toronto's bullpen is a circus but they should be less exhausted Wednesday.

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Pick 2: Phillies (-170) vs Padres

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 1:05 pm ET

Gather 'round, folks. Let me tell you the tale of Ranger Suarez. You could make the case no pitcher's been better this year. The left-hander owns a 1.77 ERA and an MLB-leading 0.880 WHIP. He's a pristine, strike-throwing machine. And here's the real kicker: the Phillies are 10-1 SU in games pitched by Suarez.

It's been a down stretch for the Phils (5-5 L10), but a Suarez day always turns the tide. On top of that, Philadelphia has good numbers vs Padres starter Matt Waldron. The Phils feast on the knuckleball, batting a collective 7-for-19 vs Waldron with a .789 SLG thanks to five extra-base hits.

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I'd check out some total bases props for Phillies hitters in this one, too. Kyle Schwarber O 1.5 (-115) and Bryson Stott O 1.5 (+130) are at the top of my list, as they both have great numbers vs Waldron.

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