My MLB expert picks are back and better than ever. We'll start early with a moneyline bet in the first game of the day between the Astros and Reds. After that, we'll dive into an NL West matchup, where a sizeable pitching advantage makes our bet easy.
Picks made as of September 5 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Here are my two MLB picks for September 5:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Astros ML (-160) vs Reds
Astros vs Reds Odds - Game Time: 1:10 pm ET
This is a 1 p.m. ET game, so get your bets in quick!
But if you want the sparknotes on this pick, turn to the pitching matchups. Yes, Rhett Lowder looked fine in his Reds debut a week ago, but he also walked four hitters in four innings, and I doubt all that foot traffic will bode well against a damaging opponent like the Astros. The Astros have been a top-10 offense for the last 30 days and ranked even higher for slugging percentage. A veteran lineup facing a pitcher with shaky command will always lead me to consider home run props, so I'd watch for Yordan Alvarez to go yard Thursday.
The second element of this bet rests on the very capable shoulders of Hunter Brown. While Spencer Arrighetti got lit up by the Reds yesterday, I expect a much different performance from Brown. He's turned a new leaf after the All-Star break, pitching to a 1.05 ERA. If Brown can work six innings and hand a tight lead over to Josh Hader, we're in business for our bet.
Best of all you can do this bet for -160 odds. I'd even recommend parlaying the Astros ML with the NRFI game prop, which you can get at -110 today.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Giants ML (-150) vs D-backs
D-backs vs Giants Odds - Game Time: 3:45 pm ET
I picked the D-backs yesterday, but I'm changing course and putting my money on the Giants today. The ML value is fair, and with Blake Snell on the mound, I like our chances.
The splits give us lots to love in this matchup. For starters, Snell's been a god in the second half, but his success in August was extra impressive. The lefty posted a 5-1 record with a 1.64 ERA, cementing another excellent month. We can take it a step further, as Snell dominates the D-backs. Active Arizona hitters own a brutal career slash of .161/.248/.329 vs Snell.
On the opposite end, Giants hitters rip D-backs starter Merrill Kelly for an .864 OPS. That number comes via an impressively high slugging percentage (.540), as Lamonte Wade Jr., Mark Canha, and Mike Yastrzemski have all homered off the Snakes starter. The new $151-million man Matt Chapman is also 1-for-2 lifetime vs Kelly, so I'd sneak a peak at his OVER 1.5 total bases at +130 odds.
