I'm honing in on some Fernando Tatis Jr. MLB prop bets for today's Padres vs Marlins matchup. El Nino hasn't been great lately, so I'm leaning his unders across the board — even against a brutal Miami squad. But with Ronald Acuna Jr. hurt and the NL MVP odds now wide open, maybe Tatis is ready to pop off?
Check out my Tatis total base and stolen base props below, as well as some other Fernando Tatis prop selections to choose from:
Here are my Tatis Jr. best bets of the day:
Marlins vs Padres Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Pick 1: Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases (-170)
Tatis Jr. is in a bit of a slump, so don’t catch me betting his overs today. The Padres stud outfielder has gone over 1.5 total bases in just three of his last 11 games, watching his OPS fall from .781 to .744 in that time. He’s gone under 0.5 total bases, even, in three of his last 11.
Tatis will also face Marlins starter Trevor Rogers for the first time in his career today. We’ve got no vs Rogers sample to go off of, but Tatis has struggled against lefties like him all season. The Padres outfielder has a .163 average and .633 OPS against lefties this year, notching just two extra-base hits in 49 at-bats. Everything leads me to go under here.
Pick 2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-600)
I’ve already laid out why I don’t think Tatis is going to have a big day at the plate today, with his struggles lately and his poor performance against lefties.
If you can’t get on base, you don’t have opportunities to steal. So, that’s already a lean to the under here.
But, if you dive in further it doubles me down. Tatis hasn’t stolen a single base since May 7th — that’s an 18 game stretch. He hasn’t even attempted a SB in that time.
It’s also just harder to steal bases against lefty pitchers like Rogers, as they have a direct view of first base. Even though the Marlins allow the fifth-most stolen bases against in the league, I don’t think Tatis is getting one today.
If you’re looking for a Padre to bet on a stolen base today, I’d lean Ha-Seong Kim. He leads the team with 13 swipes and has four in his last six games.
Other Tatis Jr. Prop Betting Markets - May 27th
If you're looking for more ways to bet Tatis Jr. today, here are a few other prop and game line markets to consider:
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run: Yes (+450), No (-750)
Tatis Jr. 2+ Homers: Yes (+4000)
Tatis Jr. Hits: O0.5 (-215), U0.5 (+160)
Tatis Jr. RBI: O0.5 (+190), No U0.5 (-260)
Game Outcome: Marlins ML (+154), Padres ML (-185)