Both fans and players think the 'Home Run Derby Curse' is a real thing, scared that participants in the MLB All-Star event will mess up their swing over the break and fall off in the second half.
But is that curse real? And should we care about the slump in the MLB season's second half?
What Is The Home Run Derby Curse?
The gist of this curse is that some players (and many fans) feel that players 'get out of their swing' by participating in the HR Derby. Swinging for the fences for one night in mid-July can throw off an entire season.
pete alonso is gonna win the HR derby and then go on a second half slump. it’s so predictable
— Robert Murray (@robmurray310) July 8, 2024
"I try to stay away from that," Alex Rodriguez famously said of the Derby in 2008. The Yankees slugger claimed the HR Derby tampers with his swing.
But is that curse and the following HR Derby slump backed up by stats?
Is The HR Derby Slump Real?
I took a look at the data from the last two Home Run Derbies (2023 and 2022), comparing the first half homers (and homer rates) of all 16 participants. Here's what I found:
- Average home runs per game barely changed in the second half (.22 -> .21 HR per game)
- But, 11 of the 16 participants saw their total homers and HR rates fall in the second half
Here's a breakdown of the data:
| Year | Pre-Derby HR/Game | Post-Derby HR/Game | Players Who's HR/G Dropped |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | .22 | .21 | 5 (of 8) |
| 2023 | .21 | .21 | 6 (of 8) |
While the HR/G of the 16 participants over the last two years barely changed, that was mostly buoyed by a few huge second halves. Albert Pujols' 18 homers in the second half of 2023 tripled his HR rate from the first half and Julio Rodriguez (2023) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2022) had big second halves that average out this data.
But, the fact that 11 of the 16 total participants the last two seasons had worse second halves by both total HR and HR rates is worth noting. We saw Juan Soto (.22 HR per game to .11) and Jose Ramirez (.22 to .14) have pretty significant power drop-offs in the second half last year. Mookie Betts (.30 to .20) and Randy Arozarena (.18 to .11) saw similar falls in 2022.
Maybe there is something to this HR Derby curse.
Who Is Susceptible This Year?
Here are this year's HR Derby participants and their current HR totals:
- Pete Alonso, 24
- Marcell Ozuna, 24
- Gunnar Henderson, 27
- Adolis Garcia, 17
- Bobby Witt Jr., 15
- Teoscar Hernandez, 19
- Jose Ramirez, 23
- Alec Bohm, 11
All eight of these players are worth watching to see how they start the second half out of the Derby, but there's one player I'm particularly worried about:
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Henderson's .29 homers per game was the most of any participant this year and would've been the second-highest of any in last year's Derby. It's a pace that's hard to keep up for any player, but especially for a guy that's reliant on an unsustainably high 31.1% HR/FB rate (the highest in baseball), despite playing in one of the league's more pitcher-friendly parks. Per park factors, Batlimore's Camden Yards allows 8% fewer than average homers.
There are non-Derby Curse reasons to be worried about Gunnar's second half, but the fact that he participated in this year's event worries me even more.
You can currently bet the under 42.5 HR for Henderson this season at -106, and I think that’s the smart money. Even if Henderson doesn't reach 40 homers, I think he's a good bet in AL MVP odds (+310), though.
