2021 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Trout and Alonso are Top of the Order
The home run may be the most exciting piece of action in America’s favorite pastime and with the 2021 MLB season starting this week, bettors need to start doing their homework on which player will lead the big leagues in round-trippers.
According to the best baseball betting sites, former American League MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels is the co-betting favorite in home run leader odds, sharing that distinction with a young slugger from Queens.
Trout is listed at +900 to lead MLB in home runs in 2021 and also opened as the favorite last season. Joining Trout at +900 is New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso, who hit 17 home runs in 2020 after setting the record for most homers in a season by a rookie with 53 the previous year.
Luke Voit of the New York Yankees led MLB in home runs last season with 22 dingers in 56 games and currently has +3000 odds to repeat the feat, even though he’s expected to miss the first six weeks of the 2021 campaign.
Check out our handy guide on how to bet on baseball or see the most recent MLB futures odds to get up to speed.
For now, here are the full betting odds for which player will lead MLB in home runs in 2021:
Who Will Lead Major League Baseball in Home Runs in 2021?
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Mike Trout | +900 |
Pete Alonso | +900 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | +1100 |
Joey Gallo | +1200 |
Juan Soto | +1200 |
Cody Bellinger | +1300 |
Aaron Judge | +1500 |
Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1500 |
Eloy Jimenez | +1500 |
Eugenio Suarez | +2000 |
Matt Olson | +2000 |
Giancarlo Stanton | +2000 |
Yordan Alvarez | +2000 |
Bryce Harper | +2200 |
Christian Yelich | +2200 |
Miguel Sano | +2500 |
Jorge Soler | +2500 |
Trevor Story | +2800 |
Manny Machado | +2800 |
Rafael Devers | +2800 |
Marcell Ozuna | +3000 |
Mookie Betts | +3000 |
Franmil Reyes | +3000 |
Matt Chapman | +3000 |
Luke Voit | +3000 |
Jose Abreu | +3000 |
JD Martinez | +3000 |
Gleyber Torres | +3000 |
Luis Robert | +3300 |
Nolan Arenado | +3500 |
Odds as of March 30 at BetOnline
Why is Mike Trout the Co-Favorite to Lead MLB in Home Runs?
When you’re the best baseball player in the world, you’re likely going to be the front-runner for a number of individual MLB awards, so it makes sense to have Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout as the co-betting favorite in 2021 home run leader odds. The five-tool superstar has always had decent power in his stroke but he’s kicked it up a notch in recent seasons and now bats in the heart of the Angels order.
It was hard to knock Trout for “only” hitting 17 home runs in 53 games last season. He still finished in the top three in the majors and likely could’ve had more if he was getting any support from his teammates in the lineup. Anthony Rendon was supposed to offer Trout protection but he was underwhelming in his first season on the West Coast.
The fact remains that the former American League MVP is used to succeeding in spite of his teammates and in 2019 he was electric. Trout slugged 45 dingers that season in 134 games played and likely would’ve been the home run leader had Pete Alonso not gotten hot at the end of the year to finish with 53.
The “games played” stat is why it’s difficult to bank on Trout for this prop, because even though he’s Superman when he plays, the fact remains that from 2017 to 2019, he missed a combined 90 games due to injury. When looking back at MLB home run leader odds since 2010 and the eventual winners, it’s always a player who plays in at least 90 percent of his team’s games.
Trout would likely need to play a minimum of 146 games to even be within striking distance, and he hasn’t done that since 2016. With so many good sluggers in the big leagues and such little room for error, the value may be found elsewhere.
Long Shots in MLB Home Run Leader Odds
The one player who should at least be on a bettor’s radar wagering on home run leader odds in 2021 is the Milwaukee Brewers’ Christian Yelich at +2200.
Yelich has fit into Milwaukee as well as if he’d been covered in beer on the set of That ’70s Show. In his first full season with the Brewers in 2018, he was easily the best hitter in the National League and won NL MVP in the process. In his second season, he looked to be on pace for another MVP trophy until he was lost for the final 30 games due to a broken leg. It’s too bad because to that point, he had smashed 44 home runs and was neck and neck with Pete Alonso for the home run lead.
2020 was a bit underwhelming for Yelich as the Brewers showed some regression across the board, but he still managed to hit 12 home runs in 58 games. With a full season, expect Yelich and his power to be in the mix for MLB home run leader.
How to Read MLB HR Leader Odds
The above chart features the odds for the top sluggers in Major League Baseball and which ones will lead MLB in home runs by the conclusion of the season. At your sportsbook of choice, the betting lines would look something like this:
Mike Trout +900
Pete Alonso +1000
Giancarlo Stanton +1800
This means that Trout is the favorite since he has the lowest odds and the highest chance of winning the prop, according to oddsmakers. If you were to bet $100 on Trout and he won, you would get a payout of $1,000 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $900.
On the other hand, if you strongly believe that Stanton will crush the ball in 2021 and win this prop, a winning $100 bet on him would yield $1,900 – your $100 comes back along with your prize of $1,800.
Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
Making a Futures Bet
A futures bet is a wager made on events or milestones that will happen in time. The MLB HR leader bet is a form of futures betting because you are making a pick based on an outcome determined at the end of the MLB regular season. It’s best to lock in your bets sooner rather than later so you can take advantage of better odds. The closer it gets to the end of the season, the more the odds will change.
MLB HR Leader Prop FAQ
Can I bet on who will lead the MLB in home runs?
Yes, you can bet on who will lead the MLB in home runs. Wagering on which player will lead Major League Baseball in home runs is one of the most exciting ways in which to wager on America’s favorite pastime. If the old saying is true, and chicks actually do dig the long ball, then they’ll definitely be digging dingers if it means more dollars in your baseball betting account.
Who led the MLB in home runs in 2020?
Luke Voit of the New York Yankees led the MLB in home runs in 2020. The Bronx Bombers first baseman blasted 22 long balls in 2020. Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had 19 home runs in 60 games played, while Atlanta Braves leftfielder Marcell Ozuna led the National League with 18 dingers.
Who was favored to lead the MLB in home runs in 2020?
Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout was the betting favorite to lead Major League Baseball in home runs in 2020. The eight-time MLB All-Star, and three-time American League Most Valuable Player finished the shortened 60-game season tied for fourth place alongside Jose Ramirez and Fernando Tatis Jr. with a total of 17 home runs.