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2021 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Trout and Alonso are Top of the Order

The home run may be the most exciting piece of action in America’s favorite pastime and with the 2021 MLB season starting this week, bettors need to start doing their homework on which player will lead the big leagues in round-trippers.

According to the best baseball betting sites, former American League MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels is the co-betting favorite in home run leader odds, sharing that distinction with a young slugger from Queens.

Trout is listed at +900 to lead MLB in home runs in 2021 and also opened as the favorite last season. Joining Trout at +900 is New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso, who hit 17 home runs in 2020 after setting the record for most homers in a season by a rookie with 53 the previous year.

Luke Voit of the New York Yankees led MLB in home runs last season with 22 dingers in 56 games and currently has +3000 odds to repeat the feat, even though he’s expected to miss the first six weeks of the 2021 campaign.

Check out our handy guide on how to bet on baseball or see the most recent MLB futures odds to get up to speed.

For now, here are the full betting odds for which player will lead MLB in home runs in 2021:

Who Will Lead Major League Baseball in Home Runs in 2021?

Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2021
PlayerOdds
Mike Trout+900
Pete Alonso+900
Ronald Acuna Jr.+1100
Joey Gallo+1200
Juan Soto+1200
Cody Bellinger+1300
Aaron Judge+1500
Fernando Tatis Jr.+1500
Eloy Jimenez+1500
Eugenio Suarez+2000
Matt Olson+2000
Giancarlo Stanton+2000
Yordan Alvarez+2000
Bryce Harper+2200
Christian Yelich+2200
Miguel Sano+2500
Jorge Soler+2500
Trevor Story+2800
Manny Machado+2800
Rafael Devers+2800
Marcell Ozuna+3000
Mookie Betts+3000
Franmil Reyes+3000
Matt Chapman+3000
Luke Voit+3000
Jose Abreu+3000
JD Martinez+3000
Gleyber Torres+3000
Luis Robert+3300
Nolan Arenado+3500

Odds as of March 30 at BetOnline

Why is Mike Trout the Co-Favorite to Lead MLB in Home Runs?

When you’re the best baseball player in the world, you’re likely going to be the front-runner for a number of individual MLB awards, so it makes sense to have Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout as the co-betting favorite in 2021 home run leader odds. The five-tool superstar has always had decent power in his stroke but he’s kicked it up a notch in recent seasons and now bats in the heart of the Angels order.

It was hard to knock Trout for “only” hitting 17 home runs in 53 games last season. He still finished in the top three in the majors and likely could’ve had more if he was getting any support from his teammates in the lineup. Anthony Rendon was supposed to offer Trout protection but he was underwhelming in his first season on the West Coast.

The fact remains that the former American League MVP is used to succeeding in spite of his teammates and in 2019 he was electric. Trout slugged 45 dingers that season in 134 games played and likely would’ve been the home run leader had Pete Alonso not gotten hot at the end of the year to finish with 53.

The “games played” stat is why it’s difficult to bank on Trout for this prop, because even though he’s Superman when he plays, the fact remains that from 2017 to 2019, he missed a combined 90 games due to injury. When looking back at MLB home run leader odds since 2010 and the eventual winners, it’s always a player who plays in at least 90 percent of his team’s games.

Trout would likely need to play a minimum of 146 games to even be within striking distance, and he hasn’t done that since 2016. With so many good sluggers in the big leagues and such little room for error, the value may be found elsewhere.


Long Shots in MLB Home Run Leader Odds

The one player who should at least be on a bettor’s radar wagering on home run leader odds in 2021 is the Milwaukee Brewers’ Christian Yelich at +2200.

Yelich has fit into Milwaukee as well as if he’d been covered in beer on the set of That ’70s Show. In his first full season with the Brewers in 2018, he was easily the best hitter in the National League and won NL MVP in the process. In his second season, he looked to be on pace for another MVP trophy until he was lost for the final 30 games due to a broken leg. It’s too bad because to that point, he had smashed 44 home runs and was neck and neck with Pete Alonso for the home run lead.

2020 was a bit underwhelming for Yelich as the Brewers showed some regression across the board, but he still managed to hit 12 home runs in 58 games. With a full season, expect Yelich and his power to be in the mix for MLB home run leader.


How to Read MLB HR Leader Odds

The above chart features the odds for the top sluggers in Major League Baseball and which ones will lead MLB in home runs by the conclusion of the season. At your sportsbook of choice, the betting lines would look something like this:

Mike Trout +900

Pete Alonso +1000

Giancarlo Stanton +1800

This means that Trout is the favorite since he has the lowest odds and the highest chance of winning the prop, according to oddsmakers. If you were to bet $100 on Trout and he won, you would get a payout of $1,000 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $900.

On the other hand, if you strongly believe that Stanton will crush the ball in 2021 and win this prop, a winning $100 bet on him would yield $1,900 – your $100 comes back along with your prize of $1,800.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

Making a Futures Bet

A futures bet is a wager made on events or milestones that will happen in time. The MLB HR leader bet is a form of futures betting because you are making a pick based on an outcome determined at the end of the MLB regular season. It’s best to lock in your bets sooner rather than later so you can take advantage of better odds. The closer it gets to the end of the season, the more the odds will change.