2022 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Can Anyone Catch Aaron Judge?

There are only a couple of months left in the 2022 MLB regular season and Aaron Judge currently leads the majors with 43 home runs. The Yankees outfielder is well ahead of the field with 10 more round-trippers than the next-best slugger.

Can anyone catch Judge for the most dingers in MLB by the end of the season?

According to sportsbook Bovada, Judge is the favorite to win the home run crown this year with -1400 odds.

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For now, here are the full betting odds for which player will lead MLB in home runs in 2022:

Major League Baseball Home Run Leader Odds

Odds as of August 3 at Bovada

Aaron Judge Is The Favorite For Most Home Runs in 2022; Is He Slowing Down?

With 43 homers, Judge is well ahead of the field in the race for the most big flies in baseball. Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber is second behind Judge with 33 dingers on the year.

That’s why Judge sits as the favorite at -1400. It just doesn’t look like anyone can catch up to him or even pass him before the regular season ends. Unless he slows down. So, is he?

Not at all. Over his last 20 games, Judge has 13 home runs. During that span, he launched two moon-shots in a single game against the Royals (July 29), Orioles (July 22) and Red Sox (July 16). Over the last 30 days, no other player has more than 10 home runs, but Judge has 14.

It helps that the Bronx Bomber holds the best barrels per appearance at 16.4 percent in the league and the third-longest average distance per hit at 203 feet. When he connects with a ball, it’s typically going a long way.

Aaron Judge and the Yankees currently hold the second-best World Series odds at +375.

Long-Shot Home Run Odds

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Kyle Schwarber (+1000)

Schwarber has the next-best odds to hit the most home runs in 2022 at +1000, but he’s got some work to do in order to catch up to Aaron Judge. He’s 10 back of the Yankee with 33 dingers on the year. So, can he do it? Can Schwarber not only make up the 10 home runs to equalize Judge but even pass him before the year is over?

What could help Schwarber narrow that gap with Judge is who’s left to play on the Phillies’ schedule. With a .475 SOS, the Phillies have one of the easiest remaining schedules in all of baseball.

Not to mention that Philadelphia still has to play the Washington Nationals 11 times, the Cincinnati Reds seven times and the Chicago Cubs another three times. Those clubs rank first, second and fourth respectively in terms of home runs allowed this season.

Eleven games against the Nats could be huge for Schwarber in the home run race. He’s already picked up six of his 33 homers on the year against the Nats, in eight games. Those 11 remaining games could be another potential eight home runs on the year for him.

That’s obviously not enough to pass Judge if the Yankees’ homer machine keeps on smashing them out of the yard. But if Judge slows down, those 11 games against the Nats and 10 combined games against the Reds and Cubs could be the advantage Schwarber needs to narrow the gap and maybe even pass Judge.

At +1000, a winning $100 bet on Kyle Schwarber to hit the most home runs on the year would pay out $1,000.