Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during Game 1 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on Friday, October 5, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts

Dream Pitching Matchup in ALCS Game 1: Betting Edge to Sale

Chris Sale and Justin Verlander go head-to-head in Game 1 of the ALCS tonight in Boston in a game that has hitters on both sides losing sleep in the days leading up. A year plus a week since their last meeting, Sale and Verlander have both been exceptionally solid in 2018. The Red Sox, despite being underdogs to win the series, are the betting favorite to win Game 1 at -120.

SHARK BITES
  • Justin Verlander’s ERA is 1.09 since September 1 (T-1st MLB).
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Houston.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games.

Astros vs Red Sox Game Center

Nobody is Better Than Verlander Right Now

Since the beginning of September, nobody in the majors has been better than Justin Verlander. He’s compiled a 1.09 ERA through 33 innings of work and is striking out a remarkable 13.6 batters per nine innings. His strike rate in 41.7% (1st), his strike to ball rate is 37.5% (1st) and his WHIP is 0.57 (2nd to deGrom). I could go on, but you get the picture.

On the other side of the pitching matchup is Boston ace Chris Sale, who was a lock for the American League Cy Young award until he was injured in August. The 29-year-old shed all concerns of him not being back to 100% by picking up a win and a hold in the ALDS vs the rival Yankees, striking out nine in 6.1 innings.

Houston Won the Season Series

The Astros were victorious in last year’s playoff series against the Red Sox and followed that up with a 4-3 win in the season series, including taking two of the three games at Fenway Park. Ironically, neither Verlander nor Sale pitched in that series just a month ago.

In the 2017 ALDS, Verlander and Sale went head-to-head in Game 1 where the Astros got to Sale for two runs in the bottom of the first and went on to score seven against him. The Astros eventually won the game 8-2.

They matched up again in Game 4 in a much closer game but with the same result, a Houston win, 5-4 as the Astros clinched the 3-1 series win.

My Pick for This Game

Based on the evidence, I have to pick Houston as the underdog on the moneyline in this game. Sale has not been able to beat the Astros in three consecutive starts and Verlander has been a man on a mission.

Houston dismantled Cleveland in style and finished the ALDS with a .327/.421/.615 slash line. It didn’t matter who the Indians trotted out to the mound, the Astros made short work of all of them. Just like underdog Milwaukee won Game 1, I am picking underdog Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS.

Justin Verlander’s ERA is 1.09 since September 1 (T-1st MLB).away The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Houston. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games.home
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