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Astros Have Outscored Opponents by 60 Runs In Their Last 12 Games

Picking up right where they left off last season, the Houston Astros are crushing teams lately and will look to keep that momentum when they head to Fenway Park to face the defending World Series champs, the Boston Red Sox. The Astros are 11-1 SU and ATS over their last 12 games but the Red Sox have been on their own resurgence, winning 12 of their last 15.

The Astros opened as -135 favorites with a total of 9.5.

Astros vs Red Sox Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Gerrit Cole gets the call for the Astros tonight in this heavyweight matchup and he’s been on his game over his last three starts. The 28-year-old has only allowed five earned runs over his last three starts while striking out 32 batters. In two starts vs the Red Sox last season, he allowed five earned runs and struck out 15. However, bettors will remember his outing in Boston during last year’s ALCS when he allowed four earned runs on six hits in a 7-5 loss.
  • The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello to face the red-hot Astros and he’s been much better at home than on the road this season. He owns a 3.65 ERA in four home starts this season and has only allowed two homers compared to the road where he has a 7.11 ERA and has allowed six dingers. In two starts vs the Astros last season, he gave up six earned runs and three home runs.
  • The Astros and Red Sox have been crushing the ball lately and are ranked second and fourth respectively in runs scored per game. The Astros have been especially good lately, going 11-1 SU and ATS in their last 12 games while outscoring their opponents 98-38. George Springer and Alex Bregman are second and fourth in MLB in home runs this season and have combined for seven dingers over the last seven days.
  • The Red Sox aren’t to be dismissed in this scenario as they’ve gotten hot recently with wins in 12 of their last 15 games while winning seven of their last eight at Fenway Park. J.D. Martinez has hit four home runs in his last three games. 
  • Tonight’s total is at 9.5 and the OVER may be the best play. In Rick Porcello’s eight starts this year, only one game had less than 10 runs and the OVER has hit in seven of his eight starts (average combined score: 13.3 runs per game).

 

My Best Bet for Astros vs Red Sox

OVER 9.5 Runs

I would also recommend the Astros -1.5 but I feel like the OVER is the safer play because if the Red Sox come out swinging, that just makes it easier for this game to go to 10 runs. The Astros are on a tear right now and I don’t see their offense slowing down just because Porcello is on the mound.

Porcello is known for a clunker and he has been prone to get lit up by this offense as evidenced by his splits last season and when he faced them in the playoffs last October. It is a high total so I get why bettors would be cautious but I think the Red Sox bullpen is leaky and this will go OVER in the latter innings of the game.

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