Red Sox Favored In Game 3 After Tying Up ALCS

The Boston Red Sox responded with a 9-5 win over the Houston Astros to even up the American League Championship Series at 1-1. With the series shifting to Fenway Park in Boston for Game 3, the Red Sox will look to take control as the favorites for the first time in the best-of-seven.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Red Sox come into Game 3 as the home favorites at -115 on the moneyline with the visiting Astros not far behind at -103. The total is set at 8.5 runs with the OVER going 5-0 in Boston’s last five games and 8-1 in Houston’s last nine.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Eduardo Rodriguez is set to make his third postseason appearance after pitching in Games 1 and 4 of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. The left-hander was shaky in Game 1, allowing two hits and two earned runs over just 1.2 innings, but responded with a stronger five-inning outing in Game 4 when he gave up three hits and two earned runs. Rodriguez went 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through 32 regular-season outings (31 starts).

The Astros counter with Jose Urquidy, who has yet to pitch in these playoffs. Though the right-hander missed two months of the regular season with shoulder discomfort, he impressed in his 20 starts, posting an 8-3 record along with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Urquidy’s last outing came on October 3 against the Oakland Athletics when he allowed four hits and three earned runs over six innings.

See Odds Shark’s Best MLB Betting Sites

Houston News & Notes

Game 2 fell apart early for the Astros as starter Luis Garcia got into trouble immediately. After allowing a leadoff double, he eventually walked two batters to load the bases. Martinez came up next and knocked the ball out of the park. Garcia eventually left the game in the second with an injury, though his replacement, Jake Odorizzi, didn’t fare much better.

The Astros offense fought back with an RBI double from Kyle Tucker and a two-run single from Yuli Gurriel in the bottom of the fourth, bringing the score to 9-3. They put up one more last-ditch effort in the bottom of the ninth with solo home runs from Gurriel and Jason Castro but it was too little, too late.

Boston News & Notes

The story of Game 2 was the long ball as the Red Sox got grand slams from both JD Martinez and Rafael Devers. Martinez, the designated hitter, launched his shot in the top of the first to give Boston an early 4-0 lead. Just an inning later, Devers followed up to put the Red Sox ahead 8-0. Kike Hernandez added a solo home run in the fourth – his third of the series.

Nathan Eovaldi gave the Red Sox a relatively strong start, scattering five hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings. Reliever Garrett Whitlock pitched two scoreless innings as the Boston bullpen held on for the win.

How Houston Will Win

When you allow a grand slam in the first inning, you’re probably not winning that game. When you allow two grand slams in the first two innings, you almost certainly aren’t winning that game. Game 2 was a rare meltdown for the Houston pitching staff that likely won’t be repeated. If the Astros can limit the Red Sox to five runs or less in Game 3, their bats will do the rest of the work.

How Boston Will Win

The Red Sox have arguably been the best hitting team in the majors this postseason, leading the way in runs (45), home runs (16) and batting average (.318). They did all their damage with the long ball in Game 2 with two grand slams and a solo shot. If the bats can stay hot, Boston may take the upper hand in the series.

Computer Pick: Astros ML (+107)

For more MLB predictions, visit our MLB Computer Picks page.