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Betting Preview: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees

After dropping Game 1, the Houston Astros grinded out a thrilling extra-innings victory in Game 2 to even the ALCS against the New York Yankees. They now travel to the Bronx, but with the nearly unhittable Gerrit Cole on the mound, do the Astros deserve to be favorites in this pivotal swing game?

Matchup Information
  • Houston Astros vs New York Yankees (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: October 15, 4:07 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: FOX Sports 1
  • Opening Odds: HOU -158/NYY +138 | O/U 7.5 (Line History)
  • Starting Pitchers: HOU Cole (22-5, 2.37 ERA), NYY Severino (1-1, 1.12 ERA)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Yankees won 103 games in the regular season, so normally it’s weird to see them as noticeable underdogs. But Gerrit Cole isn’t normal, so whenever he starts, the Astros are justifiable favorites. The total is again 7.5 runs, which is more a testament to the unknown factor in Luis Severino than it is the Yankees’ chances to score on Cole.

Houston News & Notes

How did Houston find a way to get past the vaunted Yankees bullpen? They simply had to wait it out.

The Astros scratched out the tying run in the fifth inning, then maintained the status quo until the 10th inning, when New York had already expended all five of its premier relievers. Houston eventually got to face veteran J.A. Happ and walked off on an 11th-inning homer by Carlos Correa in a thrilling 3-2 victory.

It’s deja vu in a sense for Houston, as Correa won Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS with a walkoff hit as well. Correa also saved the game for Houston in the sixth inning as he made a heads-up play to recover a deflected ball and gunned down DJ LeMahieu at home, preserving the tie game that eventually led to his late-inning heroics.

Houston starter Justin Verlander pitched a strong 6.2 innings, with a long ball by Aaron Judge in the fourth frame his only real mistake on the night. Their 1-2 punch continues in Game 3, as Gerrit Cole takes the mound. He’s won 18 straight decisions, and another stellar outing in Game 3 would give Houston the series lead and restore its home-field advantage.

New York News & Notes

Following Masahiro Tanaka’s dominant Game 1 outing, the Yankees were hoping James Paxton could follow it up with another strong outing of his own.

It didn’t go as planned, however, as Paxton was unable to command the strike zone and was pulled in the third inning as manager Aaron Boone had to go to his bullpen much sooner than expected.

That eventually came back to haunt Boone, as even though Adam Ottavino was the only one of the eight New York relievers to even allow a hit (before Happ), the Yankees had to go to their depth relievers by the 10th inning, eventually losing in the 11th.

While the top of the order has continued to make life tough on opposing pitchers, New York should be concerned about the middle of the lineup; Edwin Encarnacion and Gary Sanchez are hitting just .158 in the playoffs. They are a combined 1-for-17 in the ALCS with 10 strikeouts, and both are going to need to start delivering if they want to win this game – and the series.

Betting Pick: UNDER 7.5 runs

Gerrit Cole is pitching. Say no more. I’ll take the UNDER.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York’s last 18 games vs the AL West.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston’s last 15 road games.
  • New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 home games against Houston.