Astros vs Mets Picks & Odds: Houston Favored In Heavyweight Clash

Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros (45-27) begin another two-game mini-series with the New York Mets (47-27) tonight. The Astros won both games against New York last week thanks in large part to Alvarez’s big bat. See below for more insight, analysis and an Astros vs Mets prediction.  

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Astros vs Mets Odds & Analysis

Sportsbook Odds

New York opened as a slight favorite but that is no longer the case. For those wanting to bet the Mets in this one, you can now get them as underdogs, although they have lost five straight to Houston. The total opened at 8.5 with the consensus now at 8. The UNDER is 12-2 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in New York.

Get the best Astros vs Mets odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

Starting Pitchers

Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros. He is 7-3 this season with an ERA of 2.90 and is coming off a no-decision against the Yankees. Valdez hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in 11 consecutive starts. This will be his first career start vs the Mets.  

New York will counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is 8-3 on the season, but that record is deceiving as his ERA sits at 4.42. Carrasco has surrendered 13 runs in his last 13 innings pitched. The Astros got the best of him in his most recent start, when he gave up five earned runs and couldn’t get out of the third inning. 

Astros Have An Empire State Of Mind

Tonight’s contest marks the seventh straight game against a New York-based team. The Astros won a pair of home games against the Mets last week before splitting a four-game set with the Yankees in the Bronx on the weekend.

Alvarez beat up Mets pitching in the two wins, going deep three times. He has 22 home runs on the season, tied for second in baseball and trailing only Aaron Judge. 

Houston’s pitching is a big reason why they have the third-best odds to win the World Series (+650) behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They have the third-best team ERA in the majors, just north of 3.00.  

Alonso, Lindor Leading The Way Offensively For The Mets

The Mets are the third-best hitting team in baseball and have been led in recent games by their two stars. Francisco Lindor has multi-hit games in three of his last four contests, while Pete Alonso, who is tied with Alvarez with 22 home runs, has registered at least one RBI in five of his last six games. 
 
New York returns home after taking two of three from the Marlins in Miami. Home cooking has been good to the Mets as they have won 13 of their last 15 games at Citi Field. They own the second-best home win percentage (.706) in the majors with a 24-10 record.  

Astros vs Mets Pick & Insights

Astros: Keys To Victory

Attack Carrasco early. His numbers this season aren’t great and he has given up five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Despite his 4-4 career record vs the Astros, he has taken some beatings from this team in the past. If they can get to him early, then taking the road team seems like the smart play when making your Astros vs Mets pick.   

Mets: Keys To Victory

Slow down Alvarez. The big lefty is a road warrior and has done most of his damage this season away from Minute Maid Park, including an OPS of 1.104. He is also a perfect 2-for-2 in his career against Carrasco, with both hits being home runs. The Mets will need to keep Alvarez in check if they want to avoid a sixth straight loss to Houston.   

MLB Computer Pick: Astros -125 ML

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