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Cardinals Have Been Very Profitable as Home Dog

Astros vs Cardinals Betting Odds July 27, 2019

The St. Louis Cardinals continue their push for the NL Central crown and will try to steal another game from the Houston Astros. The Cardinals are 8-1 SU as home underdogs this season but will be in tough vs Gerrit Cole.

The Astros opened as -180 favorites with a total of 8.5.

Astros vs Cardinals Game Center

STANDOUT STATS

  • Gerrit Cole is starting for the Astros and he’s been lights out since the beginning of June. In his last 10 starts, Cole sports a 1.94 ERA and the Astros are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. In that stretch, he’s only had one game where he allowed more than two earned runs but it’s worth noting that both of those SU losses were on the road (Texas and Cincinnati).
  • Daniel Ponce De Leon is on the mound for the Cardinals and he’s bounced around from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He sports a 2.82 ERA over 38.1 innings of work and in four starts at home, his ERA is 2.53 with opponents only hitting .197 off of him.
  • Both bullpens in this matchup have been sharp over the last 30 days as the Cardinals rank fifth in ERA (3.52) and the Astros rank ninth (3.98). The relievers have been getting it done by holding opponents to a .221 (Cardinals) and .236 (Astros) batting average.
  • The Astros’ offense continues to be a matchup nightmare for opposing pitchers. In the last month, Houston sports a .280 batting average and .836 OPS which both rank in the five in MLB in that stretch.
  • Sticking with the last 30 days, the Cardinals’ offense has been in the bottom tier. They rank 23rd in batting average (.244), 22nd in OPS (.740) and 24th in total hits. In that span, they’re the only team with a winning record to rank in the bottom 10 in runs scored.
  • The Cardinals have been very profitable when tabbed as a home dog this season. In nine games at New Busch Stadium as a dog, the Cards are 8-1 SU.

My Best Bet for Astros vs Cardinals

Cardinals Moneyline

I’m usually a little iffy about betting against Gerrit Cole (or the Astros in general) but the Cardinals are on a hot streak and they’re getting incredible value as a home dog.

While I think Cole will have his way with the Cardinals hitters (take the OVER 9.5 strikeouts), the Cardinals seem to have a knack of coming up big in key moments. The Cards are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games and it’s not a fluke.