The Texas Rangers hope that the all-star break was a bit of a reset for them as they dropped six of their last eight heading into the break but are -140 favorites today with the visiting Houston Astros coming back at +120. The Rangers send Lance Lynn to the hill while the Astros counter with spot starter Framber Valdez. At Globe Life Park the total is elevated at 11 runs.
Standout Stats
- Houston won nine of its last 12 games before the all-star break and is 6-6 ATS over that span as well. The Astros are 24-19 on the road and they are 6-4 vs the Rangers this season.
- Texas is 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS over its last 14 games ending the unofficial first half. The Rangers are 29-17 at Globe Life Park.
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Rangers’ last 13 contests with an average combined score of 9.08. Conversely, the total has gone OVER in seven of the Astros’ last 13 with an average combined score of 10.38. The total has been split through the 10 meetings between these clubs in 2019, five going OVER and five going UNDER.
- Texas is 12-6 over Lance Lynn’s 18 trips to the mound and he is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He has 13 quality starts.
- He is averaging the highest K/9 rate since his rookie season in 2011 and the lowest BB/9 rate of his career.
- Opponents are hitting .254 against Lynn and he has the lowest WHIP at 1.22 since his rookie campaign. Of the contact against, 17.2 percent has been soft-hit and 38.7 percent has been hard-hit. Since the start of June, Houston ranks 16th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP.
- Lynn has a 4.37 ERA and a .275 opponent batting average over his nine home outings. He averages lower K/9 and BB/9 rates compared to his road appearances, and has lower soft-hit and higher hard-hit percentages as well.
- Houston is 1-3 in Framber Valdez’s four starts this season and he is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, including 14 relief appearances. He has tossed two quality starts.
- He is averaging lower K/9 and BB/9 rates compared to his rookie season last year, while his HR/9 rate has climbed slightly.
- Opponents are hitting .244 against Valdez and of the batted balls against, 22.2 percent have been soft-hit and 40.7 have been hard-hit. The Rangers sit sixth in hard-hit percentage vs LHP since the start of June.
- Valdez has a 5.09 ERA and a .242 opponent batting average through his eight road outings, including one start. He has higher K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to his home appearances. He has lower soft-hit and hard-hit percentages as well.
- Texas went 13-16 against left-handed starters in the first half, ranking in a tie for dead last in batting average but fourth in runs scored vs southpaws. Since the start of June, the Rangers are 29th in batting average and fourth in runs scored vs LHP.
- In the first half of the season, Houston went 36-27 against right-handed starters, sitting fifth in batting average and 12th in runs scored vs righties overall. Since June 1, the Astros are 13th in average and 18th in runs scored vs RHP.
My Best Bet for Houston vs Texas
OVER 11
Elevated number, I know, but the Rangers have gone OVER in eight of the 14 home games with the total set at 11, with one game a PUSH. Lynn has a perfect 7-0 record in his home starts but has a higher ERA and opponent batting average compared to his road outings. Meanwhile, Valdez’s ERA is higher in his road appearances compared to those at Minute Maid Park. In the lone game on the docket and with fresh lineups out of the break, I think balls may be flying out of the park early and often.
