Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays highlights our MLB Best Bets.

Joe Osborne's MLB Best Bets for August 17

Happy Tuesday everyone and thanks for clicking over to a rare written article from myself. The usual videos should pick up again tomorrow, but I’m stuck at home today with a sick toddler which isn’t conducive to any type of video production or any type of general productivity for that matter. Thankfully, the lion’s share of my research is done the night before game day, so behold my MLB best bets for Tuesday’s action!

Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-150), placed at Sportsbook

  • This has mismatch written all over it with the Jays having a clear starting pitching edge as well as the hitting advantage with the Nationals beginning to feel the impact of trading some of their best hitters at the deadline.
  • Nats starter Erick Fedde has been a rock-solid F5 fade, evidenced by his 5-10-4 F5 record. He’s on an ugly stretch that’s seen him allow three or more earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. His ERA in innings one through five over this nine-game stretch is a horrendous 7.34.
  • Alek Monoah has been incredibly dependable with two or fewer earned runs allowed in six consecutive starts and in nine of eleven overall.
  • The teams are polar opposites in terms of early game offense. In innings 1-5 over the last two weeks, the Jays come in at sixth in wRC+ while Washington is 27th.

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Erick Fedde UNDER 4.5 Ks (-149), placed at Sportsbook

  • Aside from his recent form mentioned in the notes above which will hopefully continue this evening and chase him from the game early, Fedde has gone below 4.5 Ks in seven of his last nine starts.
  • His Whiff % is on the extremely poor end at 19.3% which has him ranked at 417th among 452 pitchers who’ve faced at least 100 batters. As a result, he’ll likely need the help of a generous umpire to go over this number.
  • Toronto has been efficient at the plate by limiting strikeouts lately. Over the last two weeks, they have the second-lowest K% in baseball vs right-handed pitchers at 17.8% along with the lowest K% overall at 17.2%.


Giants moneyline (-159), placed at Sportsbook

  • Some have been waiting all season for the bottom to fall out on San Francisco, but with wins in 10 of its last 12 to help solidify a league-best .647 win %, it should be crystal clear that they’re here to stay. I give them the advantage in the three key areas of the game.
  • Marcus Stroman has been good, but not as good as Logan Webb who has a 1.53 ERA over his last 10 appearances along with a 1.58 ERA when pitching at home on the season. In the seven starts Webb has made at home, the Giants are 7-0.
  • Over the last two weeks, the Giants bullpen has a 1.96 ERA which is the best in baseball. The Mets’ number sits at 5.01 which puts them at 25th in the two-game span.
  • Offensively, San Fran is cooling off a little bit ranking 14th in OPS over the last two weeks, but this still puts them well ahead of the ice-cold Mets who rank 26th in this span.

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