The Atlanta Braves survived for at least one more night as they topped the Los Angeles Dodgers last night in Game 3 of their NLDS. The Braves’ 6-5 victory was their first win of the series and the first time they got runs across the plate vs the Dodgers and they opened this game as a +125 underdog with Los Angeles coming back at -145. Rich Hill opposes Mike Foltynewicz on the mound with the total Sportsbook at 8 runs.
- The Braves are 7-17 SU in their last 24 games in the playoffs at home.
- The Dodgers are 5-0 SU and ATS in Rich Hill’s last five starts.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of the Braves’ last nine games at home (avg. combined score: 10.0).
Foltynewicz looks to put his last start behind him
Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85 ERA) gets the ball for the second time in the NLDS and is hoping for a much better result this time around. The 27-year-old started for the Braves in Game 1 and was swarmed for four earned runs on three hits, lasting just two innings in a 6-0 loss. Dodgers leadoff hitter Joc Pederson turned on the third pitch delivered by Foltynewicz and planted it over the center-field wall, while Max Muncy also took the righty deep to center in the second inning, putting the Dodgers up 4-0.
The Illinois native took the mound at SunTrust Park earlier this season when the Dodgers paid a visit and once again the outcome was not the desired one. Los Angeles jumped on Foltynewicz for four earned runs on six hits while he lasted five innings in a 4-1 loss. The Braves pitcher now holds a 10.29 ERA in two starts vs the Dodgers this season, and he has surrendered four home runs over those outings.
Foltynewicz had been good in the last two months of the season, though, with the Braves winning six of his last 11 appearances while he sported an impressive 2.55 ERA, allowing two or fewer runs in nine starts over that span. This season, Atlanta went 7-9 through the righty’s 16 trips to the mound at SunTrust Park where he held a respectable 2.85 ERA and kept batters to a .191 average.
Dodgers eye sixth straight win behind Hill
Rich Hill (11-5, 3.66 ERA) finished the season in fantastic form with Los Angeles being victorious in each of his last five trips to the mound through September. The veteran lefty stifled opposing batters to a measly .174 average, but when they hit him, they hit him hard as he surrendered five home runs over that span which accounted for 10 of his 13 earned runs through that month. Fortunately for Hill in this game, the Braves have hit the 12th-fewest home runs since the all-star break.
The 38-year-old got the ball at SunTrust Park in late July and would love to replicate that appearance today. The Massachusetts native hurled seven scoreless innings, allowing just three hits while striking out eight batters. Hill’s clubs have gone 6-1 SU over his seven career starts vs Atlanta and he holds a sparkling 1.76 ERA in those games. This is the ninth career playoff outing for Hill and his teams have gone 5-3 SU in his previous eight while he has posted a middling 3.48 ERA.
OVER trending in this game
Last night’s game had a combined score of 11 and Sportsbook has today’s total Sportsbook at 8 runs. The Dodgers have gone OVER in each of their last three road games with an average combined score of 14, while the Braves have gone OVER in seven of their last nine home games with an average combined score of 10. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in 10 of Hill’s last 13 starts, including his last five in a row. Lastly, the Dodgers have scored the fourth-most runs in MLB since the all-star break, including a tie for the most home runs in the majors over that span.
My take on Los Angeles vs Atlanta
Too many signs point to Los Angeles in this game and with the Dodgers being favored today, I’m on the -1.5 runline. The Braves are just 7-17 SU in their last 24 home playoff games, with 14 of those defeats coming by two or more runs. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 7-3 SU on the road vs the Braves, winning five of those games by two or more earned runs. Lastly, the Dodgers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games in the afternoon.
