The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorite to win both Game 1 and the NLCS itself according to oddsmakers. They will give themselves a significant chance to open the series with a win as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill in Game 1 with -160 odds at most books. Milwaukee is the underdog at home paying +135 in early action.
- The Dodgers are 9-0 SU in their last nine games with Clayton Kershaw as the starting pitcher.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Brewers’ last 10 games at home (avg. combined score: 7.0).
- Gio Gonzalez has a 1.27 WHIP and 3.49 ERA in 44 career starts when pitching on 6+ days of rest.
Dodgers vs Brewers Game Center
Dodgers 9-0 in Kershaw’s Last Nine Starts
Clayton Kershaw is a horse. Full stop. Yes, there are some rumors swirling as to whether or not he opts out of his contract, but right now he’s fully focused on winning a World Series with the Dodgers.
In his last start, Kershaw went eight shutout innings and gave up just two hits to the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS. The Dodgers ace made one previous start at Miller Park this year, pitching six innings and allowing one earned run. Brewers batters have a career .242 average vs Kershaw and, notably, Christian Yelich is 9-for-17.
Gonzalez on 11 Days’ Rest
Gio Gonzalez, whom the Brewers acquired from Washington in late August, will make his first playoff appearance tonight on 11 days’ rest – his last outing was on September 30 against the Tigers in Milwaukee. During his career, the Floridian has a 1.27 WHIP and 3.49 ERA when starting on six-plus days of rest.
The 11-year veteran was outstanding for the Brew Crew in September, going 3-0 in five starts, while the team went 5-0 in those games. Gonzalez had a September ERA of 2.13 with a 0.98 WHIP. He did not see any action vs the Dodgers in 2018 but was 1-0 with a .182 opponents’ batting average against LA in 2017.
Dodgers, Brewers Scoring Plenty of Runs
The total for this game opened at 7.5 runs, which is tricky because immediately when you see Kershaw and the numbers that Gonzalez put up in September, you think UNDER for sure. In addition, seven of the Brewers’ last 10 home games have hit the UNDER with an average combined score of 7.0.
In the first round, the four games the Dodgers played against the Braves had an average combined score of 7.0 and Game 3 that Kershaw started had three total runs scored.
However, both teams are scoring over four runs per game so far in the playoffs, which would send the total OVER 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee has the second-highest postseason OPS at .807 while LA is third at .803. Milwaukee has hit four home runs in three games while LA has eight home runs through four games.
My Pick for Tonight’s Game
I think this game is going to be close. Really close. So, while I think LA wins this game, I’m going to take Milwaukee on the +1.5 runline at -115. The reason for this bet is if I’m right, there’s a great chance it’s a one-run game, and if I’m wrong, it’s a valuable hedge.
There’s something special happening with the Brewers and their bullpen has been outstanding. So, even if Gonzalez gets in trouble early, Craig Counsell has options to keep this one close.
LA scored 20 runs in the NLDS but only one of them vs left-handed pitching and that was on a home run. The Dodgers hit just .171 vs Atlanta’s lefties while they hit .226 vs right-handers. Milwaukee hit .272 in the NLDS and there’s no reason to believe that their bats will slow down.
