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Dodgers Favored to Advance in Game 7 of the NLCS

Dodgers vs Brewers Betting Odds Oct 20

After a combined 345 games played during the regular season and playoffs, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers have boiled it down to a one-game winner-take-all in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Dodgers got thumped 7-2 in Game 6 and now will face the unenviable task of taking down the Brew Crew at Miller Park. Los Angeles will have Walker “don’t call me Ferris” Buehler on the hill to stare down Milwaukee’s batting order while the Brewers counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who has yet to allow an earned run in the postseason.

The Dodgers are slight -115 favorites with the total opening at 7.5.

SHARK BITES
  • The Brewers are 4-1 SU and ATS in five games at home during the postseason.
  • The Dodgers have scored only 9 runs in the last four games.
  • The OVER has hit in 5 of the Dodgers' last 7 games on the road. (Average combined score: 11 runs per game)

Dodgers vs Brewers Game Center

Brewers Have Been Tough to Beat at Miller Park

Never really known as a raucous environment in the Midwest, the Brewers have become a juggernaut at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 4-1 SU and ATS in its five home games in the postseason and has outscored their opponents 23-12 in those contests. The Brewers pitching staff has been lights out in the playoffs with a 2.13 ERA in 84.2 innings and haven’t allowed more than five runs in 10 playoff games to go with three shutouts.

That’s why Craig Counsell must feel confident going into Game 7 because he has right-hander Jhoulys Chacin on the mound, who hasn’t allowed an earned run in the postseason while giving up six hits over 10.1 innings of work. Chacin will be backed up by arguably the best collection of relief pitchers in baseball as Josh Hader and Jim Jeffress should be plenty rested after not having to do much in Game 6 while Corey Knebel and Corbin Burnes will be available after hurling 3.2 innings in the last game.

Dodgers’ Bats have Cooled Off

After tying with the Yankees for most home runs (106) in MLB since the all-star break, the Dodgers’ offense has picked an awful time to go cold. The Brewers’ pitching staff may have had something to do with that but for an offense that has studs up and down the batting order, it seems inexcusable to only be able to manage nine runs in the last four games of this series.

The Dodgers will send out Walker Buehler in what should be the biggest game of the 24-year-old’s career and in his only start in the NLCS, he took the loss when he allowed four earned runs off of six hits. Buehler has now given up nine earned runs in two playoff starts and bettors shouldn't be surprised to see Dave Roberts send in lefty Clayton Kershaw if Buehler continues to struggle. Kershaw is on three-days rest and gave up four earned runs in three innings in Game 1 of this series in Milwaukee.

OVER May Be The Safe Play

The total opened at 7.5 in the NLCS finale and I’m leaning to the OVER. Buehler has gotten roughed up in both of his postseason starts and Kershaw was also a victim of the Brew Crew when he faced them in Game 1. Both of these teams may be ranked one and two in postseason ERA but the Brewers’ relievers have been used a whopping 53.2 innings in the postseason thus far and could be prone to giving up the long ball to a team with tremendous power in the batting order. The OVER has also hit in five of the Dodgers’ last seven games on the road with an average combined score of 11 runs per game.

My Pick is…

To take the Brewers +1.5 runline. I don’t like the smell coming from the Dodgers’ pitching staff in this game as Buehler has started games looking sharp but then has fallen apart in both of his postseason starts. The Brewers’ pitching is such an edge to have in a close-out game and coupling that with playing in front of the home crowd, it’s shaping up for the Brewers make the World Series for the first time since 1982.

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