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UNDER Proving to be a Wise Wager in Twins Games as they Host the Angels

The Minnesota Twins have won each of Jose Berrios’ last five appearances and they are a -160 favorite in tonight’s series opener against the visiting Los Angeles Angels, who are coming back at +135. Tyler Skaggs counters for Los Angeles and he is sporting a 6.38 ERA over his four road starts this year. Tonight’s total opened at 9 runs.

Angels vs Twins Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Minnesota is 8-4 SU and ATS in its last 12 games. The Twins are also 13-7 at Target Field this season.
  • Los Angeles is 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS through its last 15 contests and 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five. The Angels are 8-12 in their road games this year.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of Los Angeles’ last 13 matches with an average combined score of 10.46. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in seven of Minnesota’s last 12 games with an average combined score of 8.
  • The Angels are 3-3 in Tyler Skaggs’ six trips to the mound this season and he is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He has had two quality starts this year.
  • He is averaging 8.22 K/9, 2.93 BB/9 and 1.17 HR/9 thus far, which are all right around his career average. He has a groundball percentage of just 33, which is the lowest in his career.
  • Skaggs has the highest percentage of hard-hit batted balls in his career at 42.9 percent. Minnesota ranks third in the majors in hard-hit batted ball percentage vs LHP.
  • He has been roughed up on the road, sporting a 6.38 ERA and a .311 opponent batting average in four starts compared to at home where he has a 2.19 ERA and a .209 opponent batting average.
  • The Twins are 7-1 in Jose Berrios’ eight outings this year and he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. He has seven quality starts this season, including his last three in a row.
  • Berrios has the lowest BB/9 rate in his career at 1.35, while his K/9 and HR/9 rates are average.
  • Opponents are hitting just .207 against him, which is the lowest average in his career. Additionally, 25.2 percent of the batted balls are soft-hit, which is the seventh-highest percentage among starting pitchers who have tossed at least 20 innings.
  • Berrios has been better at home than on the road, sporting a sparkling 1.98 ERA and holding opponents to a .198 batting average at Target Field over four starts.
  • Los Angeles is 15-10 against right-handed starters this year and ranks third in MLB in batting average and 10th in runs scored vs RHP. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 2-3 against left-handed starters, sitting third in batting average but 23rd in runs scored vs southpaws.

My Best Bet for Los Angeles vs Minnesota

Minnesota -1.5

Jose Berrios is one of the elite aces in the majors right now and has been absolutely terrific at home. Meanwhile, Tyler Skaggs has been roughed up over his four road starts, sporting a 6.38 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .311 against him. Additionally, Minnesota ranks third in the majors in batting average vs southpaws. Lastly, seven of Berrios’ eight outings this year have been quality starts.

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