I went 0/2 on my MLB home run props on Wednesday, but I got a few dinger bets for Thursday I feel good about.
I'm diving back into the AL Central with a Twins homer prop and I've got one no-homer fade that's worth a look, as well. Here are my two home run prop picks for May 30th:
[mlb_25_parlay_insurance_:BET99-2374158]
Pick 1: Max Kepler To Homer (+400)
Royals vs Twins Matchup Preview - Game Time: 1:10 pm ET
I'm backing the Twins in general tonight, taking Minnesota on the moneyline over KC. But, I also like this Kepler home run prop specifically.
Royals starter Brady Singer has given up four of his six homers (and 15 of his 22 extra-base hits) to lefty hitters like Kepler this year. While righties own just a .556 OPS against Singer, lefties rock a .765.
As well, Kepler's had some good success against Singer in the past. The Twins outfielder has a 1.075 career OPS against Singer, with five extra-base knocks and two homers in 20 career at-bats.
Kepler hasn't been too hot recently, with just one multi-hit game and one homer in his last 10 contests, but this is as good of a matchup as he can get.
If Kepler homers, my Twins moneyline pick is as good as cashed, too. When Max goes yard, the Twins are 4-0 this year with a +24 run differential.
[mlb_25_parlay_insurance_:BET99-2374158]
Pick 2: Jeff McNeil NOT to Homer (-3000)
Twins vs Diamondbacks Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
Every so often I like to mix in a no homer bet. They aren't the most profitable ventures in the world, but they can be a good cherry to add at the top of a parlay when I'm quite confident. And I'm very confident Jeff McNeil ain't going yard tonight.
DBacks starter Zac Gallen has been great against this Mets lineup in general, allowing just one homer in 75 career at-bats. And he carves against McNeil specifically, allowing just three hits (one for extra-bases) in 16 career at-bats.
McNeil is also cold right now, registering just three hits and one RBI in his last six contests.