MLB Expert Picks May 31

MLB Expert Picks For May 31st: Severino Season

I went 2-0 in my MLB expert picks yesterday (and Ethan Diamandas and I went 6-0 in picks on our 3 True Outcomes show). So, let's keep that heater going into the final day of May.

Here are my MLB picks for May 31st:

MLB Expert Picks: May 31st, 2024

You can jump directly to today's picks here:

Pick 1: Cardinals vs Phillies Under 8.5 (-122)

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:41 pm ET

The Cardinals and Phillies have both been hitting the ball pretty well lately, with both squads ranking inside the top 10 in OPS over the last month.

But, everything else in this matchup screams under to me. With an 8.5 run line, a lot has to go right to hit this over and the Cards and Phillies haven’t surpassed eight runs in any of their three games so far this year.

As well, this pitching matchup in particular screams under to me. Aaron Nola has held current Cards batters to a .186 average and .563 OPS in 118 career at-bats, while Miles Mikolas has held the Phillies to a .284 OBP and .718 OPS.

Both Nola and Mikolas have faced their respective opposition already this year, and both put up matching six-inning, two-run performances.

Pick 2: Diamondbacks vs Mets (-116)

Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:11 pm ET

I was all over the Mets yesterday and I'm tailing them tonight for many of the same reasons. The Diamondbacks have been the second-worst offense in baseball over the last two weeks scoring just 2.9 runs per game with a team OPS of .602. The Mets have been about league average over that same period.

As well, I think Luis Severino is in for a good day for New York on the mound. The righty has pitched to a 3.22 ERA on the season allowing two or fewer runs in six of his last nine starts.. And, Sevy faces a Diamondbacks team that owns the sixth-worst team OPS in baseball against righties like him.

A guy like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in particular is in for a tough day, as Severino has held him to just 1/10 in his career with five strikeouts. You can find the under on Gurriel's 0.5 hits tonight at +150, juicy value in my opinion.

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