The Milwaukee Brewers (83-73) have gone UNDER the posted total in seven of their last eight games including Thursday's game against the Miami Marlins (65-91). The Brewers will try to earn a win as a Marlins vs Brewers prediction in what could be another low-scoring game this Friday night in Milwaukee.

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Marlins vs Brewers Opening Odds

Opening Odds

The Brewers opened as -161 favorites at home before betting action on them drove the Marlins vs Brewers odds up to Milwaukee -180. The total in this one is extremely low at six runs, and was even lower when it opened at 5.5 runs. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between Milwaukee and Miami.

Starting Pitchers


Sandy Alcantara pitched eight innings and allowed only three hits and one earned runs while striking out 11 batters in another dominant outing last Saturday in a 4-1 Marlins win over the Washington Nationals. Alcantara has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 14-8 record, a 2.32 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 199 strikeouts in 220.2 innings pitched.

Corbin Burnes allowed four hits and two earned runs while striking out eight batters across 6.1 innings in a 10-2 Brewers win over the Cincinnai Reds last Saturday. Burnes has also been among the game's elite in 2022 with an 11-8 record, a 3.11 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 231 strikeouts in 191 innings pitched. 

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Miami Playing Well Down The Stretch

The Marlins picked up a 4-2 win over the Brewers on Thursday night as +145 underdogs. With the win, Miami improved to 6-4 SU over its last 10 games including a 4-2 SU run over its last six games. This 10-game stretch was preceded by a 5-16 SU run over the Marlins' previous 21 games.

Avisail Garcia was the hero on Thursday, hitting a grand slam in the top of the eighth inning to give the Marlins a 4-2 lead. Garcia had only one home run in his previous 109 at-bats prior to the grand slam.

Milwaukee Still Fighting For A Wild Card Spot

The Brewers fell to 1-3 SU over their last four games with Thursday's loss after having gone 4-0 SU in the four games prior to this slump. Milwaukee averaged 6.5 runs per game over its four-game winning streak and just 2.5 runs per game during this 1-3 SU skid.

Milwaukee enters Friday's action with an 83-73 SU record, a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies at 83-72 SU. This race for the final National League wild-card spot could go right down to the wire with only one week left in the regular season.

Marlins Player Prop: Sandy Alcantara OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-103)

Sandy Alcantara has struck out seven batters or more in five of his last eight starts. And the Brewers strike out a lot with the fifth highest strikeout total in the majors at 1,402 strikeouts in 156 games. Getting to seven strikeouts in this game seems quite achievable for Alcantara.

Brewers Player Prop: Corbin Burnes UNDER 8.5 strikeouts (-127)

This prop is going against the grain as Burnes is an elite strikeout pitcher facing a fairly week lineup. It's worth noting however that Burnes has had seven strikeouts or less in seven of his last nine starts. It wouldn't be surprising to see him go over this total, but there's value in the UNDER here.

Marlins vs Brewers Picks & Insights

Marlins: Keys To Victory

Miami ranks 28th in the majors in run production with only 3.60 runs per game scored this season. As is always the case when he takes the mound, it will be up to Sandy Alcantara to pitch at an elite level to give Miami a shot to cash in as a Marlins vs Brewers prediction in a low-scoring game.

Brewers: Keys To Victory

Corbin Burnes shouldn't have much trouble on Friday facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. But Milwaukee will only get the job done as a Marlins vs Brewers pick if their lineup can snap out of its recent slump and score a few runs, which will be no easy task facing Alcantara.

MLB Computer Picks: Brewers ML -180

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Shark Bites
  • Miami is 4-9 SU over its last 13 road games.
  • Milwaukee is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games vs Miami.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Milwaukee's last 5 home games.
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