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Braves Favored To Close Out Series Vs Brewers In Game 4

The Atlanta Braves are 14-3 over their last 17 games, including back-to-back wins over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves can punch their ticket to the National League Championship Series with another win over the Brewers on Tuesday night in Atlanta.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
  • Date/Time: October 12, 5:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Truist Park
  • TV Coverage: TBS
  • Opening Odds: Braves -125 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
  • Brewers vs Braves Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Braves opened as -125 home favorites before the starting pitchers for Game 4 were announced and are now going off at -150. Milwaukee will try to extend the series as a +140 underdog, while the total is down to 8 runs after opening at 8.5 runs. The UNDER is 4-2 in Milwaukee’s last six games in Atlanta.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Eric Lauer got tagged for five earned runs in his final start of the regular season against the Los Angeles Dodgers. But before that, he had recorded an outstanding 1.15 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP over his previous five starts. Lauer carries a 3.19 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP into this start.

Charlie Morton gets the nod in Game 4 on just three days’ rest. Morton pitched six innings and allowed only three hits and two earned runs with nine strikeouts in Game 1 against the Brewers. The veteran right-hander went 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 216 strikeouts during the regular season.

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Milwaukee News & Notes

The Brewers lost to the Braves 3-0 on Sunday, the same score that they lost by in Game 2, and have managed to score only two runs in this series. The team’s offensive woes didn’t just start in the playoffs; the Brewers ended the regular season on a 4-10 skid in which they averaged only 3.57 runs per game.

On the bright side for Milwaukee, the starting staff and bullpen have pitched great in this series with a 2.42 team ERA. This series could easily see a Game 5 if the Brewers offense wakes up.

Atlanta News & Notes

Atlanta’s pitching staff has now combined to hold the Brewers scoreless for 19 straight innings.

Joc Pederson made his one at-bat on Sunday count with a pinch-hit home run in the bottom of the fifth inning that was responsible for all three Atlanta runs in the game.

The Braves finished the regular season on a 12-2 run, averaging 5.64 runs per game over that stretch. While the run production has gone down against the elite pitching of the Brewers, this offense is at least providing its team with some run support, unlike Milwaukee’s.

How Milwaukee Will Win

Milwaukee needs to get its offense going, and perhaps facing Morton on short rest will be the ticket. In Game 1, two runs off Morton was enough for the Brewers to squeak out a win. The Brewers are so good at protecting leads that there is a clear path to victory if they can just create a lead.

How Atlanta Will Win

Charlie Morton was lights-out in the postseason for the Rays in both 2019 and 2020 and is off to a strong start again in 2021. Atlanta has the better offense in this series, so as long as Morton is able to give the Braves a solid start here, the offense should eventually be able to grind out a few runs. That has been enough throughout this series.

Computer Pick: Brewers +140

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Shark Bites
  • Milwaukee is 0-5 in its last 5 road games.
  • Atlanta is 10-2 in its last 12 games.
  • The UNDER is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last 7 games.